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Tropical Hurricane Isaias

Snowfan

Snowfan

When NW trend?
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A tropical wave located about 300 miles south-southeast of the Cabo
Verde Islands continues to produced an area of cloudiness and
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The disturbance is expected
move westward across the tropical Atlantic during the next several
days, and some gradual development of this system is possible by
early next week when it reaches the western tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Click to expand...
Some of the models are bullish about this system.
 
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Today's 12z EPS was very interesting. Two key takeaways from this run, more ensemble support, and more spread, between the GOM and EC, more taking the southern route. I'll post the 360hr map later.
ecens_2020-07-24-12Z_240_50_258_0_350_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png
eps_cyclones_atlantic_312_2020072412.png
 
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We truly won’t have a grip on the track of this wave for the next few days at least. As of now we know this system may eventually pose a threat to the U.S, but like always there’s a lot dictating the track. The strength/how fast is strengthens these next few days will be critical.
 
A tropical wave is producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms a few hundred miles south of Cabo Verde Islands.
This wave is expected to move westward during the next several
days, and it could become a tropical depression early next week
when it reaches the western tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Click to expand...
 
EPS still has quite a bit of support. Looks to keep the stronger members further north posing a possible east coast threat whereas the weaker members are further south posing a possible gulf threat. This one we definitely need to keep an eye on.
0EF3774D-575C-4BF9-A883-5FAEAC1C8376.gif
A0B4D137-3BC9-4845-9721-9FEAC3702AEE.jpeg
 
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SD said:
Just about a classic NC/SC pattern here. + heights over SE Canada and the NE bermuda ridge upper low in the deep south

View attachment 44963
Click to expand...

May I be the first to say how much I dislike this picture for all the reasons you just mentioned. If right...it will not end well for the SE coast.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Once you extend the atlantic ridge through bermuda and bridge it to the expanding heights in the NE there is no way out
gfs_z500a_namer_35.pnggfs_z500a_namer_39.png

Very similar to the 0z eps/euro and the 500mb setup isn't dissimilar to what we have seen this summer where the big positive heights go into the NE. Obviously there are ways to miss here but you don't usually see fairly climo favored looks at d7-10
 
Yeah that H5 pattern is a yikes. It reminds me of some of those patterns that Webber (and maybe others?) have been posting and saying "it's a good thing it's not August". Well, we're knocking on the door of August and might see that pattern that has been showing up.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Good news I would much rather see Hugo tracks for a storm that hasn’t formed vs one that has formed nearing Herbert box. There is very little to see here other than one mngr trying to stir the pot.
Click to expand...
Only talking about the models. Hows that hurricane going for Hawaii
 
A tropical wave is producing a broad area of cloudiness and
disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles
southwest of Cabo Verde Islands. The wave is expected to move
westward at about 15 mph during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely form early next week when the system
reaches the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Click to expand...
5 day chances up to 70%
 
Certainly seems like a few options here.
Option 1: Storm wraps up and gains strength quick and moves north quicker allowing it to beat the high building in and safely recurve.
Option 2: Gain strength but slow down and get trapped underneath the ridge on the east coast.
Option 3: Stay relatively weak long enough to go south of the islands and ultimately meander its way to the gulf

Just my opinion atm

So far the 12z Euro seems to be following option 3
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Certainly seems like a few options here.
Option 1: Storm wraps up and gains strength quick and moves north quicker allowing it to beat the high building in and safely recurve.
Option 2: Gain strength but slow down and get trapped underneath the ridge on the east coast.
Option 3: Stay relatively weak long enough to go south of the islands and ultimately meander its way to the gulf

Just my opinion atm
Click to expand...
Be careful you might get called a pot stirrer :)
 
SD said:
Euro is going to likely be similar to the 0z with the farther south track vs the gfs
Click to expand...
I don't know, seems much slower than 00z, may give it some more time to strengthen. Although much weaker than the GFS.
 
SD said:
Euro is going to likely be similar to the 0z with the farther south track vs the gfs
Click to expand...
Tuesday Looks to be a pivotal day. By then we should know if it follows a more Euro like evolution with a weaker and south path. If we are showing Isaiah underneath the islands by Wednesday night I would say EC chances would be waaayyyyy down
 
Despite having gone over Hispanola, the storm looks relatively intact. z500/z700/z850ecmwf-deterministic-exatl-vort500_z500-6326400.pngecmwf-deterministic-exatl-vort700_z700-6326400.pngecmwf-deterministic-exatl-vort850-6326400.png
 
Brent said:
What a track it's pretty weak but I'm not really paying attention to the strength on the globals at day 10 :p


View attachment 44994
Click to expand...
From my end, the Euro is at 999mb. I think the main reason it's so weak it due to running into Hispanola. If it's a little stronger towards the beginning of it's life like other guidance, this would be a totally different story.
 
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