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Tropical Hurricane Isaias

Snowfan

El Nina stinks
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A tropical wave located about 300 miles south-southeast of the Cabo
Verde Islands continues to produced an area of cloudiness and
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The disturbance is expected
move westward across the tropical Atlantic during the next several
days, and some gradual development of this system is possible by
early next week when it reaches the western tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Some of the models are bullish about this system.
 
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We truly won’t have a grip on the track of this wave for the next few days at least. As of now we know this system may eventually pose a threat to the U.S, but like always there’s a lot dictating the track. The strength/how fast is strengthens these next few days will be critical.
 
A tropical wave is producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms a few hundred miles south of Cabo Verde Islands.
This wave is expected to move westward during the next several
days, and it could become a tropical depression early next week
when it reaches the western tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
 
EPS still has quite a bit of support. Looks to keep the stronger members further north posing a possible east coast threat whereas the weaker members are further south posing a possible gulf threat. This one we definitely need to keep an eye on.
0EF3774D-575C-4BF9-A883-5FAEAC1C8376.gif
A0B4D137-3BC9-4845-9721-9FEAC3702AEE.jpeg
 
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Just about a classic NC/SC pattern here. + heights over SE Canada and the NE bermuda ridge upper low in the deep south

View attachment 44963

May I be the first to say how much I dislike this picture for all the reasons you just mentioned. If right...it will not end well for the SE coast.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Once you extend the atlantic ridge through bermuda and bridge it to the expanding heights in the NE there is no way out
gfs_z500a_namer_35.pnggfs_z500a_namer_39.png

Very similar to the 0z eps/euro and the 500mb setup isn't dissimilar to what we have seen this summer where the big positive heights go into the NE. Obviously there are ways to miss here but you don't usually see fairly climo favored looks at d7-10
 
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