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Tropical Hurricane Isaias

Yeah that H5 pattern is a yikes. It reminds me of some of those patterns that Webber (and maybe others?) have been posting and saying "it's a good thing it's not August". Well, we're knocking on the door of August and might see that pattern that has been showing up.
 
Good news I would much rather see Hugo tracks for a storm that hasn’t formed vs one that has formed nearing Herbert box. There is very little to see here other than one mngr trying to stir the pot.
Only talking about the models. Hows that hurricane going for Hawaii
 
A tropical wave is producing a broad area of cloudiness and
disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles
southwest of Cabo Verde Islands. The wave is expected to move
westward at about 15 mph during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely form early next week when the system
reaches the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
5 day chances up to 70%
 
Certainly seems like a few options here.
Option 1: Storm wraps up and gains strength quick and moves north quicker allowing it to beat the high building in and safely recurve.
Option 2: Gain strength but slow down and get trapped underneath the ridge on the east coast.
Option 3: Stay relatively weak long enough to go south of the islands and ultimately meander its way to the gulf

Just my opinion atm

So far the 12z Euro seems to be following option 3
 
Certainly seems like a few options here.
Option 1: Storm wraps up and gains strength quick and moves north quicker allowing it to beat the high building in and safely recurve.
Option 2: Gain strength but slow down and get trapped underneath the ridge on the east coast.
Option 3: Stay relatively weak long enough to go south of the islands and ultimately meander its way to the gulf

Just my opinion atm
Be careful you might get called a pot stirrer :)
 
Euro is going to likely be similar to the 0z with the farther south track vs the gfs
Tuesday Looks to be a pivotal day. By then we should know if it follows a more Euro like evolution with a weaker and south path. If we are showing Isaiah underneath the islands by Wednesday night I would say EC chances would be waaayyyyy down
 
What a track it's pretty weak but I'm not really paying attention to the strength on the globals at day 10 :p


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From my end, the Euro is at 999mb. I think the main reason it's so weak it due to running into Hispanola. If it's a little stronger towards the beginning of it's life like other guidance, this would be a totally different story.
 
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