JHS
Member
It makes a sharp turn in GA and the exits SC south of Myrtle Beach.
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Tropical Hurricane Idalia
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jeremyt
Member
The models did tick west, I’m not sure what you are trying to convey here!
jeremyt
Member
Right or wrong I’d take the rain!
Read the original post again. I posted a graphic containing NHC forecast tracks, not model forecast tracks, that showed that the latest NHC track was indeed further West than the previous one.
Edit: It's a moot point now anyway because the NHC has already moved the latest forecast track back East.
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There’s a eye on Cuba radar.
That GFS run! ??? It takes Idalia meanders it off GA/SC /FL coast for a few days after it exits SC and then slams Jacksonville, FL and then up into Carolinas again! One of the craziest runs I’ve ever seen! 
Looks like a pretty good surface low track for a snowstorm. ?
Belle Lechat
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I can't be the only one wondering if it's going to loop back around again.
iGRXY
Member
The Euro also is drifting NW. personally I think the land interaction and some of the shear ahas tugged or appeared to make the storm seem east of guidance. But the big driver is that the trough is looking more and more likely to miss the storm. Listen you can’t have that many models trend west and even the eastern sided guidance starting to make small incremental shifts west and NW to not call it a trend. Whether you want to believe or not it is a clear trend and what was once a quick exit OTS is quickly becoming a slow meandering over land and that is shifting further and further to the NW.
6Z NAM a tick E from 0Z
0z top, 6z bottom
0z top, 6z bottom
12z and 6z GFS identical in landfall location
DEF westerly trendings for not only landfall but track through the SE. That is good in the sense for rainfall for some for sure.
Henry2326
Member
This is about as much agreement as you can get....and it's gonna loop around.
Brick Tamland
Member
I thought there was a west trend. Those look farther south and east as it relates to previous tracks into NC.
It’s certainly a possibility. Also there’s a chance that it continues to slow down more over land or near the coast. That plot at 1pm Thursday is very close to where the 11pm advisory last night was showing it at 7pm Thursday… so again about 6 hours slower. Two things have been very noticeable on the model trends since yesterday morning… a path a bit further west and slower movement over land. Models are not far at all from the trough pulling away and leaving the storm sitting in southern SC
I can't be the only one wondering if it's going to loop back around again.
Not really… yesterday they were showing the storm exiting in the area between Hilton Head and Charleston and now they’ve clustered closer to Myrtle Beach
NCSNOW
Member
Yep I can see this rolling all the way back around and making another LF in a week, IF it doesn't dissengrate over land from a stall
Looks like the hurricane models are ranging from Cat 3(HWRF) to almost Cat 5(HAFS). Looks like the timing of an ERC will determine landfall strength.