Tropical Hurricane Idalia

[Metwannabe]

I thought there was a west trend. Those look farther south and east as it relates to previous tracks into NC.

Everything isn't about NC, it's a west trend for LF but slowing and moving east as it approaches NC. Also look at precip maps, they definitely trended W/NW, your too hyper focused on the center and your backyard

 

[NCSNOW]

GOES-East - Sector view: Gulf of Mexico - Band 13 - NOAA / NESDIS / STAR

Near real-time publication of GOES-East and GOES-West images from NOAA/NESDIS/STAR

www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov

 

[$alt]

 

[$alt]

By 2PM today; she should be quite impressive. Anything earlier than that; Bonus.

 

[Tarheel1]

6z

 

[Tarheel1]

HMON and HAFS mid 940s on Pressure!

 

[Tarheel1]

Landfall on HAFS

 

[Metwannabe]

Getting it's act together

 

[BullCityWx]

It wouldnt take much for areas north of 85 in the triangle to get blanked by this. Already just a couple hundreths on the euro.

 

[SimeonNC]

 

[$alt]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
510 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

...IDALIA EXPECTED TO SLAM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AS A MAJOR HURRICANE
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 504 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

You need to complete your preparations today if you live in the
Florida big bend. To put this system into the historical context,
there are NO major hurricanes in the historical dataset going back
to 1851 that have tracked into Apalachee Bay. None. Don`t mess
around with this. Follow the advice of your local emergency
management.

 

[SimeonNC]

Also from what I've seen more models have Idalia exiting off the NC coast around Wilmington rather than Myrtle or Charleston

 

[Brick Tamland]

Everything isn't about NC, it's a west trend for LF but slowing and moving east as it approaches NC. Also look at precip maps, they definitely trended W/NW, your too hyper focused on the center and your backyard

OK, so it's not a west trend for everyone that could be impacted in NC.

 

[$alt]

Looks like she's down to 974 or so on early pass this morning

 

[ILMRoss]

theres going to be a sharp cut off with precip in NC because of the front bringing in dry air - precip will be fighting dews in the 40s and low 50s

 

[SD]

OK, so it's not a west trend for everyone that could be impacted in NC.

Yes and no. With the jet sitting where it's at and the old front at different layers potentially getting stuck models are more adjusting the heavier precip shield N of the track

 

[$alt]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
700 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND IDALIA STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 84.8W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 005 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Idalia was located
near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 84.8 West. Idalia is moving
toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northward motion is
expected today, followed by a faster north-northeast motion later
today and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Idalia is
forecast to move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, reach the
Gulf coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area on
Wednesday, and move close to the Carolina coastline on Thursday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid intensification is likely through landfall, and Idalia
is forecast to become an extremely dangerous major hurricane before
landfall on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 977 mb
(28.85 inches).

 

[Metwannabe]

Interesting discussion from the NHC about track guidance and can see what they are talking about with the EPS (someone else has better graphics I'm sure)

There has been a westward shift in the model guidance
overnight, perhaps due to the trough tugging Idalia more
northward before taking a north-northeast turn. It should be
noted that the ECMWF ensemble shows many of its strongest members
on the eastern side of its guidance envelope, which is a
reasonable place to be given the synoptic pattern. The new NHC
forecast is adjusted a little to the west but is now east of the
model consensus on the eastern side of the reliable model guidance.

 

[tractor girl]

View attachment 136592

It does seem to still be slowing down a touch. It'll be interesting to see how quickly it develops over the coming day.

 

[Brent]

F. SPIRAL BAND
G. C20

Much more organized now