• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Hurricane Ida

It will definitely cross a portion of Cuba but given that the terrain is flat, it will spend little time over land and the fact that this storm has a large circulation and a very impressive large upper level high developing over it creating excellent outflow I would not expect it to slow the intensification down.
 
At this point I wouldn’t look at global s in regards to exact pressure … they usually end up throwing out higher storm pressures when in reality the storm is deeper… I would look more towards the Hurricane models for more specific trends in intensity in the future .. at this point all the globals do is assure us that a Hurricane will be in a very good environment in the Gulf headed towards the gulf coast
 
I think they might find something NE of there....IF they don't, I think 1 of 2 things are going to happen..... This will stay weak, maybe a TS at best until it crosses Cuba, OR....this will form NE (under the deep convection plume) (closer to Cuba) and can strengthen more.Screen Shot 2021-08-26 at 4.59.24 PM.png
 
deltadog03 said:
I think they might find something NE of there....IF they don't, I think 1 of 2 things are going to happen..... This will stay weak, maybe a TS at best until it crosses Cuba, OR....this will form NE (under the deep convection plume) (closer to Cuba) and can strengthen more.View attachment 89236
Click to expand...

That's the notion I was spit balling earlier today and the track ramifications if it does.
 
I might get yelled at by some, lol....but this thing looks sloppy at best. Recon suggests a very weak, maybe lopsided, or stretched LLC. I would think it needs to either re-locate or this will be a sloppy mess heading for Cuba.
 
Brent said:
Tropical Storm Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
520 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS DEPRESSION A TROPICAL STORM...
Click to expand...
 
Zander98al said:
Kind've sloppy buzzsaw by gfs. I imagine it'll be more symmetric than this

Sent from my moto g power using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Although we might be able to conclude that .. we could look for a hopeful possibility that maybe that shear coming off of the hurricane in the Pacific may help us out by shearing off center a bit of the convection making IDA have to try harder to maintain a hot look … could keep her at a manageable level of cat 3 even though that it still bad
 
This may be a banter-ish post but I feel like there might not be enough time for it to intensify that much. The NHC has the storm making landfall by Sunday afternoon and unless RI happens, it might not have time to become much stronger than a Cat 1 or maybe a Cat 2.
 
The only saving grace may be time with the Sunday landfall but still a lot can happen in 2 days. We've seen it before. Look at Grace last week... There have been others

If it travels over the loop current that's also a concern... That's how Katrina bombed. It was made famous back then
 
SimeonNC said:
This may be a banter-ish post but I feel like there might not be enough time for it to intensify that much. The NHC has the storm making landfall by Sunday afternoon and unless RI happens, it might not have time to become much stronger than a Cat 1 or maybe a Cat 2.
Click to expand...
It has too much time two or three days is too much time with a environment it has

Sent from my moto g power using Tapatalk
 
Speaking of Katrina... It had 2 days and look what it did. Came off Florida a 50 mph TS and was 175 mph 36 hours later Friday to Sunday morning

Not saying well get a 5 here but i think a major is entirely realistic. The fast motion could prevent it from being a 5 otherwise but we'll see
 
Last edited:
Brent said:
Speaking of Katrina... It had 2 days and look what it did. Came off Florida a 50 mph TS and was 175 mph 36 hours later Friday Night to Sunday morning

Not saying well get a 5 here but i think a major is entirely realistic
Click to expand...
Like I was saying in the previous post. Two or three days is pretty much overkill in the gulf. Especially the last 2 years

Sent from my moto g power using Tapatalk
 
Zander98al said:
Like I was saying in the previous post. Two or three days is pretty much overkill in the gulf. Especially the last 2 years

Sent from my moto g power using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Yeah and honestly if there's a big surge or flooding the wind speed and category may end up just being more of a footnote

Michael is another one... 75 mph to 160 mph in 48 hours
 
Last edited:
The Gulf Is bath water considering there no wind sheer. There nothing stopping this from at least reaching cat 3. I could be wrong but I think this hits as a cat 3 115-120mph


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...IDA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
LATER TONIGHT AND ACROSS WESTERN CUBA ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 80.1W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM W OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
Click to expand...
No change in intensity.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top