Tropical Hurricane Ida

[Avalanche]

If I read the word east one more time I think I’ll have a stroke.

I stroke it to the east and i stroke it to the west...Clarence Carter

 

[SD]

The window for Ida to gain a little more west in its motion is starting within the next few hours through early tomorrow morning

 

[Tornadocane]

I may be wrong...but I think this has a better chance of going just east of NOLA then W of NOLA

OMG that's a tough choice. I'm going to go against your premise regarding the lower pressured storms being steered east. I say Ida strengthens enough to go west of New Orleans. I think those steering currents are weak at the upper levels, and stronger from 500Mb to 850Mb. I think a strengthening storm will pump the ridge, and track a bit further west. The models seem to support this idea. So what I'm saying is... the east trend will end.

 

[Snowfan]

157
URNT15 KWBC 282234
NOAA2 1009A IDA HDOB 16 20210828
222500 2602N 08653W 6961 03083 9928 +120 +082 217064 065 067 002 00
222530 2603N 08654W 6960 03077 9913 +124 +082 214067 069 063 001 00
222600 2605N 08656W 6950 03078 9908 +118 +081 216066 068 065 000 00
222630 2607N 08657W 6960 03055 9890 +124 +077 217068 069 069 000 00
222700 2608N 08659W 6955 03048 9876 +123 +085 213070 071 070 002 00
222730 2610N 08700W 6950 03041 9854 +128 +093 212067 072 074 000 00
222800 2612N 08702W 6945 03036 9841 +127 +093 210068 071 074 000 00
222830 2614N 08704W 6949 03015 9817 +135 +091 212067 071 071 000 00
222900 2615N 08705W 6951 02999 9797 +138 +096 213059 065 067 000 00
222930 2617N 08707W 6952 02981 9778 +142 +099 215052 056 066 000 03
223000 2618N 08709W 6961 02961 9759 +148 +098 216049 051 059 000 00
223030 2619N 08711W 6952 02955 9742 +148 +096 222048 049 060 000 00
223100 2620N 08712W 6953 02941 9721 +153 +099 219048 049 057 000 00
223130 2622N 08714W 6954 02925 9707 +151 +105 207034 046 052 000 00
223200 2623N 08716W 6969 02897 9693 +154 +106 187017 030 047 000 00
223230 2625N 08718W 6951 02913 9687 +155 +106 161007 014 041 000 00
223300 2625N 08720W 6947 02919 9688 +154 +102 069007 012 039 000 00
223330 2627N 08721W 6946 02924 9689 +156 +109 063024 029 044 000 00
223400 2629N 08722W 6961 02917 9702 +154 +105 066035 037 052 000 00
223430 2631N 08723W 6961 02928 9725 +145 +108 067043 047 059 000

968.7 mb

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

I was being facetious.

They're using big, fancy, ambiguous wording to avoid admitting their forecast may be just a tad bit off.

Wrong this area has always been inside the cone there are suppose to be shifts East and west and everyone in the cone needs to prepare for a landfalling system

 

[HSVweather]

 

[g0ldl10n]

**look at these maps and you can see why there is a little room to leak east**

Current steering (how strong it is now)
2nd image is if it gets to 950-969mb (90-112kts)
3rd if we max out with 940-949mb (112-122kts)

View attachment 89535View attachment 89536View attachment 89537

Hmm, I am probably about as amateur as it gets but those steering currents look pretty obvious, I have to agree with you. Will be interesting to see how this unfolds, that's for sure!

 

[HSVweather]

Microwave overpass

 

[WeatherNC]

Not much to add here, great disco, landfall just west of Grand Isle ~945mb. She’s finally got the look. Surge in to NO proper TBD, levies should hold given this will not be a Katrina type Cat 5 fetch.

 

[pcbjr]

Kyrie Eleison, Christe Eleison, Kyrie Eleison ...

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

These big ones always tend to tighten and cycle up as they move into the northern gulf. Doubt this will be any different.

 

[accu35]

Better start going west, because if not then east of New Orleans it is. Moving at a good clip and almost to land.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Oh god it’s starting satellite is very clear .. she’s going major now

 

[accu35]

You can see the inner top structure on the Mobile radar now. I believe landfall could be sooner than 2 pm tomorrow.

 

[WeatherNC]

Buckle up

 

[NorthDFWwx]

Their forecast is practically dead on and has been unchanged for 3 days. You can go back days and Ida is currently still in their cone. They have given days of lead time for a major storm hitting west of NOLA with major impacts to the city…and they look to be absolutely perfect in their forecast.

Even in their comment, they do make mention that the storm is a bit to the right of their previously forecasted track, when is fine and I think several folks that brought up mention of that.

It was the wording they used as a follow up I rolled my eyes at. I don't know anyone who rolls stuff like "track forecast philosophy" off the tip of their tongue.

In any event, I'll leave it alone. I just thought it was weird, but I'm apparently alone in my feeling.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Notice how the blob I pointed out earlier is now but a memory and she’s finally become one with herself .. get ready for something spectacular now that she isn’t being held back by blob

 

[packfan98]

Right on track.

 

[Arcc]

HMON is bumping Cat 5 by tomorrow afternoon at 133knts before landfall at 130knts with the HWRF around 120knts.

Same song and dance for the past four years.

 

[Henry2326]

Beast mode activated
View attachment 89533

Right on schedule. Should be pristine by tomorrow.