Tropical Hurricane Ida

[Brent]

Winds always lag... The key is does the pressure keep falling. If it's going to blow up then the pressure should keep falling quickly. Now that planes should be constant we won't be guessing as much

 

[Cadi40]

If I read the word east one more time I think I’ll have a stroke.

 

[Snowfan]

Dropsonde shows the pressure at 974 mb.

 

[Snowfan]

 

[Tornadocane]

Winds always lag... The key is does the pressure keep falling. If it's going to blow up then the pressure should keep falling quickly. Now that planes should be constant we won't be guessing as much

I think it's gonna to blow up. ULAC is closing in on Ida.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Looks like convection is starting to rotate upshear with ida successfully, along with some hints of transverse banding embedded in it, which is typical with strong hurricanes

 

[Storm5]

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[Brent]

I think it's gonna to blow up. ULAC is closing in on Ida.

Yeah I still say tonight. They seem to always at night

 

[Storm5]

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[ForsythSnow]

Thing to note, the VDM had a circular eye at 25 mi first pass. If they fly back in and it's smaller then we know she's going to explode fast. Sat seems to be saying it too as there was a large convective area to the west of the eye that just filled in

 

[NorthDFWwx]

"Ida has moved a little to the right of the previous track, but the
long-term motion motion is still northwestward or 320/14 kt. The
track forecast philosophy remains unchanged. Ida is expected to
continue on a northwestward heading through late Sunday as it is
steered around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge near
the southeastern United Stated coast."

That's the story, and they're sticking to it. Okie Dokie.

"...The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged..."

What does that even mean?

 

[Storm5]

"...The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged..."

What does that even mean?

Means they are correct with the original thinking


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[DadOfJax]

"...The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged..."

What does that even mean?

Means it’s not going east….landfall still WEST of NOLA

 

[NorthDFWwx]

Means they are correct with the original thinking


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I was being facetious.

They're using big, fancy, ambiguous wording to avoid admitting their forecast may be just a tad bit off.

 

[Johnkittz]

I was being facetious.

They're using big, fancy, ambiguous wording to avoid admitting their forecast may be just a tad bit off.

Man, the professionals being called out on a weather forum by amateur/enthusiast meteorologists. Crazy times.

 

[DadOfJax]

I was being facetious.

They're using big, fancy, ambiguous wording to avoid admitting their forecast may be just a tad bit off.

Their forecast is practically dead on and has been unchanged for 3 days. You can go back days and Ida is currently still in their cone. They have given days of lead time for a major storm hitting west of NOLA with major impacts to the city…and they look to be absolutely perfect in their forecast.

 

[Sandbar]

I will be staging with a swift water team in Slidell tomorrow. Never been through one of these of this magnitude......

 

[deltadog03]

I may be wrong...but I think this has a better chance of going just east of NOLA then W of NOLA

 

[deltadog03]

**look at these maps and you can see why there is a little room to leak east**

Current steering (how strong it is now)
2nd image is if it gets to 950-969mb (90-112kts)
3rd if we max out with 940-949mb (112-122kts)

 

[Tornadocane]

Yeah I still say tonight. They seem to always at night

Yeah... We need some ------- dynamics from the cooler temperatures aloft. I want some lightening in my strengthening systems.