Tropical Hurricane Ida

[Henry2326]

I honestly think “underperformer”was used moreso as like, it’s not going to be the “demise of NOLA” that we thought it was going to be. Granted, even at 115mph, it will still be a formidable force that warrants the current evacuations that are taking place

I guess you have to describe demise. The first map shows Morgan City in relation to New Orleans. The second shows the surge estimates for a cat3 storm. The entire area will be covered in water with the storm pushing surge into NO. Listening this morning to the manager of the "pumps", I didn't walk away with the feeling this was going to work. There are 96 pumps and they only pump 1/2 inch per hour. As with Harvey, we will have to wait and see whether demise is characteristic of wind or water,

We watched this identical process with Michael where the models lit up then backed off, then lit up again. I'm hoping for the best case scenario for any place on the gulf, bur don't think we are far enough along to call it an "underperformer". It gives people a sense of relief that has no place at this time. Preparation is key in saving lives with the information we have.

 

[deltadog03]

some lightning showing up in eyewall now...

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Based of of satellite I would say convection appears to be refiring on the NE side. I bet we see expansive convection and lightning rotating upshear shortly

 

[Henry2326]

12z HWRF and HMON at 952 and 949. Both were noted in 10:00 NHC discussion.
Both were very effective in forecasting Michael and Laura concerning RI.

 

[Nerman]

I guess you have to describe demise. The first map shows Morgan City in relation to New Orleans. The second shows the surge estimates for a cat3 storm. The entire area will be covered in water with the storm pushing surge into NO. Listening this morning to the manager of the "pumps", I didn't walk away with the feeling this was going to work. There are 96 pumps and they only pump 1/2 inch per hour. As with Harvey, we will have to wait and see whether demise is characteristic of wind or water,

We watched this identical process with Michael where the models lit up then backed off, then lit up again. I'm hoping for the best case scenario for any place on the gulf, bur don't think we are far enough along to call it an "underperformer". It gives people a sense of relief that has no place at this time. Preparation is key in saving lives with the information we have.


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Wow! That goes all the way up to Baton Rouge. I hope they are evacuating now.

 

[BHS1975]

12z HWRF and HMON at 952 and 949. Both were noted in 10:00 NHC discussion.
Both were very effective in forecasting Michael and Laura concerning RI.

View attachment 89496

View attachment 89497

How close where they with Micheal?


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[Nerman]

12z HWRF and HMON at 952 and 949. Both were noted in 10:00 NHC discussion.
Both were very effective in forecasting Michael and Laura concerning RI.

View attachment 89496

View attachment 89497

Those two have really zeroed in on a location.

 

[BHS1975]

The eye is on the large side which could really take advantage of the loop current.


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[Henry2326]

How close where they with Micheal?


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If I remember correctly, dead on, but most said it was crazy. All the rest were not showing the RI.

 

[Tornadocane]

WOW... Ida actually looks like a storm on the verge of becoming a major hurricane. She looks like a 965-975 Mb storm with 90-100 MPH winds. That's what it looks like right now. If the environment improves tonight or tomorrow morning, I could see her bombing out to a Category 4 in as little as 12 hours. Does anyone else think Ida looks annular?

 

[BHS1975]

WOW... Ida actually looks like a storm on the verge of becoming a major hurricane. She looks like a 965-975 Mb storm with 90-100 MPH winds. That's what it looks like right now. If the environment improves tonight or tomorrow morning, I could see her bombing out to a Category 4 in as little as 12 hours. Does anyone else think Ida looks annular?

I do.


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[ForsythSnow]

WOW... Ida actually looks like a storm on the verge of becoming a major hurricane. She looks like a 965-975 Mb storm with 90-100 MPH winds. That's what it looks like right now. If the environment improves tonight or tomorrow morning, I could see her bombing out to a Category 4 in as little as 12 hours. Does anyone else think Ida looks annular?

Structure might be improving but with the gap in the N eye she still has some work to do. You might be right about her being in the 970s now and the winds being 90 or so, but in no way is this going to get annular. Way too much junk convection around.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

WOW... Ida actually looks like a storm on the verge of becoming a major hurricane. She looks like a 965-975 Mb storm with 90-100 MPH winds. That's what it looks like right now. If the environment improves tonight or tomorrow morning, I could see her bombing out to a Category 4 in as little as 12 hours. Does anyone else think Ida looks annular?

90-100 would be cat 2 territory which isn’t quite major hurricane status that starts at 115 but she’s certainly on her way there .. I really just want to know what that bubble of hot water is going to do to this thing

 

[mydoortotheworld]

WOW... Ida actually looks like a storm on the verge of becoming a major hurricane. She looks like a 965-975 Mb storm with 90-100 MPH winds. That's what it looks like right now. If the environment improves tonight or tomorrow morning, I could see her bombing out to a Category 4 in as little as 12 hours. Does anyone else think Ida looks annular?

I mean I wouldn't say she looks annular...

 

[accu35]

Maybe I'm wrong ?. Looks like NNW motion

 

[deltadog03]

I know there is plenty of time for sure, but I don't know if Ida will get higher than a 3. Something with the internal workings just seem off a bit.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Convective blowup starting on the northern side ? ?

 

[Storm5]

Models have been dead on with the track for the last two days outside the pointless NAM .


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[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Models have been dead on with the track for the last two days outside the pointless NAM .


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The NAM keeps correcting north and east. It’ll get there eventually.

 

[cyclogent]

976mb/100mph on the the latest advisory