Tropical Hurricane Ida

[Tornadocane]

Structure might be improving but with the gap in the N eye she still has some work to do. You might be right about her being in the 970s now and the winds being 90 or so, but in no way is this going to get annular. Way too much junk convection around.

Okay. I'm not exactly sure about the qualifications necessary to be designated an annular storms. I can't imagine that this storm is not in the 970s, and I'm underestimating it's pressure in comparison to other storms that have had similar eye features. I agree with you about the junk convection, particularly that convergence zone near Florida. Seems like it's suppressing storms on the Northern and Eastern side of the system. SW shear also looks like an issue, although it's a pretty subtle looking inhibitor on IR. Overall, it just looks like Ida is squeezed between synoptic scale features.

 

[Brick Tamland]

976mb/100mph on the the latest advisory

If it's already up to 100 mph, oh boy.

 

[Brent]

It's go time

 

[Weatherlover92]

Ida upgraded to Category 2 (100mph).

 

[HSVweather]

Convective blowup starting on the northern side ? ?View attachment 89503

Yes, it appears to be

 

[Storm5]

976mb/100mph on the the latest advisory

Seems generous but ok . Will be an entertaining 12-18 hours ahead


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[Myfrotho704_]

Imo I see this thing still having potential to become a 4, it looks great right now and is improving its inner structure, still has plenty of time

 

[Brick Tamland]

Imo I see this thing still having potential to become a 4, it looks great right now and is improving its inner structure, still has plenty of time

Yeah, still has about 30 hours to go.

 

[accu35]

East side of the cone.

 

[Tornadocane]

I know there is plenty of time for sure, but I don't know if Ida will get higher than a 3. Something with the internal workings just seem off a bit.

It's a bunch of little things keeping her in check. The position of ULAC, ULL to its West, Ridge to its east, and that ULL diving SW in the Atlantic. The system is only has adequate poleward ventilation.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Definitely looks to be a more north of west movement on satellite.

 

[iGRXY]

View attachment 89505East side of the cone.

That looks like a head one path with NO.

 

[Tornadocane]

Seems generous but ok . Will be an entertaining 12-18 hours ahead


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During recon this morning, winds of 95-105 MPH were pretty close to the surface (750-1,750 feet). It's not out of the realm of possibility, but 90 seems like a solid number at this point.

 

[Storm5]

When is the next recon flight ?


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[Tornadocane]

When is the next recon flight ?


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4:00 and then 4:45

 

[HSVweather]

 

[accu35]

When is the next recon flight ?


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I bet they will find Ida east of the cone.

 

[Storm5]

That's actually a good point . If it continues to ride the eastern side of the envelope it would cut time over water a little


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[Jessy89]

While east may cut down on strength slightly. NoLA still on the east side and perhaps even directly under the eastern eye wall that would not be good for NOLA


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[DadOfJax]

Like most said yesterday, this thing is headed straight to LA, MS, AL, TN, KY, and into WV….wasn’t too hard with such tight model consensus and knowing the history of what these storms do and model biases on breaking down ridges too soon. Going to be a rough ride for NOLA!!