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Tropical Hurricane Ida

NCSNOW said:
Thanks guys. Katrina eye went east NO. This will be west, way it looks now. That will be harder hit from that standpoint as it pushes water back up river. However the lake will be getting pushed away from metro , se wind until backside. Beleive the breaches where from lake, north flow on north side metro pushing down on levees Katrina. NO will get a double punch from this projected track.
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The east of New Orleans solution is actually a pretty realistic one at this point, esp considering the consistent eastward shifts we've seen (& continue to see) on guidance the past day or two.
 
whatalife said:
www.nola.com

New Orleans to hunker down for Ida as it's too late for mandatory evacuations, mayor says

Mayor LaToya Cantrell on Friday said that with little time left before Hurricane Ida reaches Louisiana, residents should get ready to hunker down and ride out the storm.
www.nola.com www.nola.com

You would think after Katrina there would be a better plan in place. Thoughts and prayers go out to all in Ida’s path.


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Yes. LA, MS, AL, GA, TN, up through VA all need prayers.
 
Am I missing something with this position of no evacuation the mayor is taking???? This seems ridiculous and blatantly unwise. I don't understand how not evacuating NO, regardless of how great the levees are now, can be allowed to happen.
 
Shaggy said:
My cousin lives in NOLA and has posted plenty of pics and videos of her walking through knee deep water this year from afternoon thunderstorms. I can't imagine the pumps will keep up with surge and rain threats but we are gonna find out sadly.
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Yeah. I don't buy it either. Isaac took a similar path as the forecast with 65MPH winds from the SE, producing 8-10 foot storm surge to NO.
 
Tornadocane said:
Yeah. I don't buy it either. Isaac took a similar path as the forecast with 65MPH winds from the SE, producing 8-10 foot storm surge to NO.
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Very ballsy call and probably the wrong one but there's not a lot of time and it would risk leaving people stranded on roadways as a major hurricane hit. They should have started 2 days ago.
 
Gopack42 said:
Am I missing something with this position of no evacuation the mayor is taking???? This seems ridiculous and blatantly unwise. I don't understand how not evacuating NO, regardless of how great the levees are now, can be allowed to happen.
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It's down to a simple case of not enough time.
For those with vehicles, there's not enough gas and not enough lanes of highways to get people out in the time left (yes, even with contraflow).
You run the major risk of having too many stuck in a complete traffic jam with the worst of the weather approaching.

It's the dirty little secret of most urban cities in major hurricane threat areas. There is no escape for everyone.
This comes from a career highway engineer; the math is not difficult.
Most state and local governments have retreated to the 'Shelter In Place' and 'Hunker Down' strategic planning now.
And then they hope for the best. You're seeing it in action.

I'm going to say some prayers and hope the Good Lord is listening.
 
I guess we're gonna find out how great those levees really are

But I kind of feel the same way... It floods in a summer thunderstorm!!

I do see the point about time though... I mean in 36 hours or less theres gonna be conditions where you can't be out
 
Shaggy said:
Very ballsy call and probably the wrong one but there's not a lot of time and it would risk leaving people stranded on roadways as a major hurricane hit. They should have started 2 days ago.
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Well they most definitely should have begun evacuating people today, but people are claiming that there are 500-year-flood resistant shelters for people to ride out the storm. Did we all of sudden forget about Covid-19? I don't care if everyone was vaccinated and masked in those shelters, the spread of large viral loads within a closed area will become an enormous humanitarian crisis within itself. The Biden Administration is going to get a call real soon.
 
HMON is way too strong in the short term. Looks like landfall at 937mb and 145mph.

Both hurricane models have it pushing Cat 4 by tomorrow evening.
 
Arcc said:
I think it’s more that we(I mostly mean myself) were fooled. If you animate the sat you can see the hot towers banding closer to where I have the L than the open area.
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I agree and recon says pretty close to that as well
 
Ida is down 988Mbs according to the latest dropsonde. Center has moved further west near the Convection.

Ida (2021) - Sonde - Atlantic AF Miss. 6 - Tropical Atlantic

View decoded Dropsonde Observations (DROP) available for Ida in 2021 from Air Force mission 6 in the North Atlantic basin.
tropicalatlantic.com

I'm thinking once Ida moves farther away from Cuba, inflow from the SE will allow for a blow-up of thunderstorms around the East and NE. Can already see it coming back on Satellite, and the Western Convection trying to wrap to the S and SE. The construction of an eyewall will begin RI, and I think we'll probably see the system tighten up further NNE.
 
HDGator said:
It's down to a simple case of not enough time.
For those with vehicles, there's not enough gas and not enough lanes of highways to get people out in the time left (yes, even with contraflow).
You run the major risk of having too many stuck in a complete traffic jam with the worst of the weather approaching.

It's the dirty little secret of most urban cities in major hurricane threat areas. There is no escape for everyone.
This comes from a career highway engineer; the math is not difficult.
Most state and local governments have retreated to the 'Shelter In Place' and 'Hunker Down' strategic planning now.
And then they hope for the best. You're seeing it in action.

I'm going to say some prayers and hope the Good Lord is listening.
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Thank you for your insight. Interesting.
 
Euro holds on landfall location. Like the gfs it's a minor shift of 20 miles or so maybe? At this point the models.are locked in just west of NOLA
 
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