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Tropical Hurricane Ida

Cadi40 said:
Even though the projected landfall location of Ida seems to be a good bit west of where Katrina struck, it actually puts NOLA in a worse position because of the counter clockwise nature of a Hurricane.
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If it gets as far west as Vermilion Bay it won't be very bad in SE Louisiana except perhaps for areas outside the levee protection system.

On the other hand, if it comes ashore near Grand Isle it's lights out.

While right now, a track far enough west for N.O. to escape the worst Ida has to offer seems the most likely outcome, but seeing that slowdown followed by a turn to the north and northeast just after the projected landfall is concerning since it seems to leave the door open for a direct hit should it begin the turn just a little sooner than forecast.
 
Cadi40 said:
Even though the projected landfall location of Ida seems to be a good bit west of where Katrina struck, it actually puts NOLA in a worse position because of the counter clockwise nature of a Hurricane.
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New Orleans as a whole has also sank about 2-2.5 feet further below sea level since Katrina and the major loss of wetlands to their SE to serve as a barrier to storm surge is going to make this a very scary situation. Let's also throw a global pandemic on there for good measure while we're at it. If you decide to stay behind in the storm, and you get injured or need medical assistance, you are basically SOL with hospitals being overloaded from covid patients in Louisiana. The cherry on top of all of this is sheer incompetence from the local government to not issue mandatory evacuations for the city, and telling everyone there to shelter in place and they'll send them to a place of "last resort" (doesn't that sound familiar (*cough* Katrina?). Unlike Katrina, there is basically nothing forecasters could have done, a major hurricane has been forecast to threaten them for at least 24 hours and they've twiddled their thumbs. You're probably, if not likely, fixing to watch a major humanitarian disaster unfold before your eyes.
 
I actually think latest Satellite images are showing some disruption of Ida, particularly at 22:02Z. Can see some mid-level spin getting stretched to the Southeast of landfall position, and is starting to demonstrate more vigorous vorticity. I'd actually really like it if someone posted the Cuban radar link so we can see if there's some organizational issues. This by no means should be taken out of context as me saying Ida will not quickly re-organize that stacked vorticity column and become a beast.
 
Webberweather53 said:
New Orleans as a whole has also sank about 2-2.5 feet further below sea level since Katrina and the major loss of wetlands to their SE to serve as a barrier to storm surge is going to make this a very scary situation. Let's also throw a global pandemic on there for good measure while we're at it. If you decide to stay behind in the storm, and you get injured or need medical assistance, you are basically SOL with hospitals being overloaded from covid patients in Louisiana. The cherry on top of all of this is sheer incompetence from the local government to not issue mandatory evacuations for the city, and telling everyone there to shelter in place and they'll send them to a place of "last resort" (doesn't that sound familiar (*cough* Katrina?). Unlike Katrina, there is basically nothing forecasters could have done, a major hurricane has been forecast to threaten them for at least 24 hours and they've twiddled their thumbs. You're probably, if not likely, fixing to watch a major humanitarian disaster unfold before your eyes.
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That’s what worries me the most, feels like history repeating itself.
 
Tornadocane said:
I actually think latest Satellite images are showing some disruption of Ida, particularly at 22:02Z. Can see some mid-level spin getting stretched to the Southeast of landfall position, and is starting to demonstrate more vigorous vorticity. I'd actually really like it if someone posted the Cuban radar link so we can see if there's some organizational issues. This by no means should be taken out of context as me saying Ida will not quickly re-organize that stacked vorticity column and become a beast.
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It's holding together. http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.as...R&TB2=../Radar/00Pinar del Rio/lbjMAXw01a.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
New Orleans as a whole has also sank about 2-2.5 feet further below sea level since Katrina and the major loss of wetlands to their SE to serve as a barrier to storm surge is going to make this a very scary situation. Let's also throw a global pandemic on there for good measure while we're at it. If you decide to stay behind in the storm, and you get injured or need medical assistance, you are basically SOL with hospitals being overloaded from covid patients in Louisiana. The cherry on top of all of this is sheer incompetence from the local government to not issue mandatory evacuations for the city, and telling everyone there to shelter in place and they'll send them to a place of "last resort" (doesn't that sound familiar (*cough* Katrina?). Unlike Katrina, there is basically nothing forecasters could have done, a major hurricane has been forecast to threaten them for at least 24 hours and they've twiddled their thumbs. You're probably, if not likely, fixing to watch a major humanitarian disaster unfold before your eyes.
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To pour salt on the wound, several pumps in New Orleans are also not working right now.

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Webberweather53 said:
New Orleans as a whole has also sank about 2-2.5 feet further below sea level since Katrina and the major loss of wetlands to their SE to serve as a barrier to storm surge is going to make this a very scary situation. Let's also throw a global pandemic on there for good measure while we're at it. If you decide to stay behind in the storm, and you get injured or need medical assistance, you are basically SOL with hospitals being overloaded from covid patients in Louisiana. The cherry on top of all of this is sheer incompetence from the local government to not issue mandatory evacuations for the city, and telling everyone there to shelter in place and they'll send them to a place of "last resort" (doesn't that sound familiar (*cough* Katrina?). Unlike Katrina, there is basically nothing forecasters could have done, a major hurricane has been forecast to threaten them for at least 24 hours and they've twiddled their thumbs. You're probably, if not likely, fixing to watch a major humanitarian disaster unfold before your eyes.
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This is well said. I believe about 48 hours ago you were first to courageously suggest areas just west of New Orleans as a more probably landfall destination, and, cause I thought the same but was too cowardly to put it out there to the forum before more educated members, I posted a response pertaining the excellent potential for Ida to achieve Category 4/5 strength. It seems all of us have come to a consensus that a humanitarian disaster is as close to certain as you're going to get with a poorly defined TS that's both 96-108 hours from landfall and 72 hours from major hurricane status. So your assertion of local and municipal government officials dragging their feet in response to this growing threat is 100% accurate. I think this event is likely to wipe the Afghanistan crisis right off the A-block of National News programs.
 
Tornadocane said:
This is well said. I believe about 48 hours ago you were first to courageously suggest areas just west of New Orleans as a more probably landfall destination, and, cause I thought the same but was too cowardly to put it out there to the forum before more educated members, I posted a response pertaining the excellent potential for Ida to achieve Category 4/5 strength. It seems all of us have come to a consensus that a humanitarian disaster is as close to certain as you're going to get with a poorly defined TS that's both 96-108 hours from landfall and 72 hours from major hurricane status. So your assertion of local and municipal government officials dragging their feet in response to this growing threat is 100% accurate. I think this event is likely to wipe the Afghanistan crisis right off the A-block of National News programs.
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They should have designated this a PTC long before they did and put a dot on landfall to have gotten a warning out and could have done this 24 to 48 hours before actual classification. The model support was there for them to do this since Wednesday.
 
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