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Tropical Hurricane Ian

Cary_Snow95 said:
The structure of this storm right now reminds me alot of Isaias. It was sloppy and all convection was lopsided to the northern side
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That’s a good example. Of course Isaias went through some quick strengthening in the last few hours before landfall… I was on vacation at Oak Island during it and I swear with the surge and wind we saw it was close to cat2. It will be interesting to see how much the center starts wrapping back up. I do think it will be a hurricane again as it’s not for off at all strength wise, but I just don’t see it getting much more that 80-85mph.
 
Chazwin said:
It does look rough. Looking at the radar. It almost appears in the last couple frames that a new center is trying to form close to the convection
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I think it's becoming extratropical now. Makes sense now from the IR and visible.

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severestorm said:
I think it's becoming extratropical now. Makes sense now from the IR and visible.

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That’s certainly a possibility, but I doubt the NHC is gonna go with that yet as they aren’t gonna want people to let their guard down on the SC coast. I do want to see if possibly a new center does try to take over and wrap convection around. If it is going extra tropical, it would also explain the huge wind field the short range models are showing.
 
Chazwin said:
That’s certainly a possibility, but I doubt the NHC is gonna go with that yet as they aren’t gonna want people to let their guard down on the SC coast. I do want to see if possibly a new center does try to take over and wrap convection around. If it is going extra tropical, it would also explain the huge wind field the short range models are showing.
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Still has the gulf stream interaction as well so it can still deepen if the storms can fire but the dry air is gonna inhibit this.

Going with landfall just N of Myrtle Beach headed towards Raleigh
 
Chazwin said:
That’s certainly a possibility, but I doubt the NHC is gonna go with that yet as they aren’t gonna want people to let their guard down on the SC coast. I do want to see if possibly a new center does try to take over and wrap convection around. If it is going extra tropical, it would also explain the huge wind field the short range models are showing.
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That's my point, it's becoming a Mid-Lattitude cyclone. Mid-Lattitude Cyclone's can deepen too.
 
Shaggy said:
He's been east since before cuba so I'm riding the trend
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Understandable… I just think that we’ve really seen things tighten up for just north of Charleston. Those EPS and GEFS means look a bit skewed by some stronger members that go north and I don’t think we’re gonna see enough strengthening to do that.
 
Chazwin said:
Understandable… I just think that we’ve really seen things tighten up for just north of Charleston. Those EPS and GEFS means look a bit skewed by some stronger members that go north and I don’t think we’re gonna see enough strengthening to do that.
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I think deepening is real risk due to interaction with the jet and beginning the extratropical transition so some of those stronger members could certainly be correct. Storms firing north of the center now. Still looks NNE or NE to me for the LLC
 
Shaggy said:
I think deepening is real risk due to interaction with the jet and beginning the extratropical transition so some of those stronger members could certainly be correct. Storms firing north of the center now. Still looks NNE or NE to me for the LLC
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How about the south side of the storm being basically eroded by dry air? Wouldn’t that effect track as well. I know the stronger the more poleward but with the trough pulling out and the dry air intrusion I’m not sure it will be enough to gain as much latitude as being shown. Although I’m not as well versed as some, I’m just giving my best educated guess based off of what I see.
 
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