Tropical Hurricane Ian

[Shaggy]

How about the south side of the storm being basically eroded by dry air? Wouldn’t that effect track as well. I know the stronger the more poleward but with the trough pulling out and the dry air intrusion I’m not sure it will be enough to gain as much latitude as being shown. Although I’m not as well versed as some, I’m just giving my best educated guess based off of what I see.

We are in the same boat in regards to the dry and how it may effect track.

 

[jeremyt]

We are in the same boat in regards to the dry and how it may effect track.

Okay so your thoughts is that the south side being dry and eroded helps it gain a more northern track? I would have thought that would keep it weaker this not as much as a northern track. I can admit I have no clue what it going et would do as I have never read up on those effects. School me up as I love learning about weather.

 

[Downeastnc]

So why no recon at all today?

 

[Cary_Snow95]

NAM is a carbon copy of 12z

 

[severestorm]

This is what's going on under the hood in the transition

 

[jeremyt]

So why no recon at all today?

??‍ Saw the plans for tomorrow but thought it would be on land or really close so not sure why then.

 

[Shaggy]

Okay so your thoughts is that the south side being dry and eroded helps it gain a more northern track? I would have thought that would keep it weaker this not as much as a northern track. I can admit I have no clue what it going et would do as I have never read up on those effects. School me up as I love learning about weather.

At this point I have no.idea how the dry would change his track. I saying north because he has ways been on the right side of forecast and that trend has held true for 3 days. Gefs, eps are shifting north.

 

[NCHighCountryWX]

NWS GSP 11am Brieifing

I was just in the 4pm briefing and no material change other than slight shift east

Next release is 6pm

NWS GSP 11am Hurricane Ian Briefing

 

[jeremyt]

This is what's going on under the hood in the transition

Thanks, I see the transition from warm to cold core. I guess my question was in regards to tracking, qpf and wind.

 

[Thor]

850s

 

[Cary_Snow95]

NAM did beef up QPF

 

[FamouslyHot]

??‍ Saw the plans for tomorrow but thought it would be on land or really close so not sure why then.

I believe I saw there were 3 missions planned before landfall, with one of them starting at 5 PM

 

[KyloG]

Would think we would see 40mph gusts with this track tomorrow....

 

[Chazwin]

I think deepening is real risk due to interaction with the jet and beginning the extratropical transition so some of those stronger members could certainly be correct. Storms firing north of the center now. Still looks NNE or NE to me for the LLC

Another thing to keep in mind… that’s a legitimate high pressure moving into the Northeast. That should block things up from coming too far north. For just once this winter can we move a strong high into that location with this plenty of moisture moving in… lol

 

[Stormsfury]

Yeah, baroclinic processes are maintaining Ian. That was already been on the table for days after Florida landfall (and part of the left hook expected)

 

[SD]

We've got a 40mb gradient between the nc/VA border tomorrow and say the 18z nam at landfall of Ian. We should see some fairly high atypically widespread gusts during the afternoon and evening. 40-50 max gusts seems pretty reasonable with a few in the 50-65 range.

 

[jackendrickwx]

75mph 987mb cat1

 

[Cary_Snow95]

 

[severestorm]

 

[BullCityWx]

3K spun it down to 963 ?

Bulls Bay if you’re curious but the grand strand would also get a whippin.