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Tropical Hurricane Ian

Just watched Levi’s video. He said he could see landfall as far north as MB for now. Crazy how far south and east this storm has remained on the NHC track. Wonder what caused this issue with the models, trough, incoming cold front? Lots of variables I know and I’m not versed enough to attempt to guess.
 
jeremyt said:
Just watched Levi’s video. He said he could see landfall as far north as MB for now. Crazy how far south and east this storm has remained on the NHC track. Wonder what caused this issue with the models, trough, incoming cold front? Lots of variables I know and I’m not versed enough to attempt to guess.
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Ian keeps moving east, models keep adjusting the landfall a little further north. I think we could have a low end cat 2 between Charleston and Myrtle Beach.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Ian keeps moving east, models keep adjusting the landfall a little further north. I think we could have a low end cat 2 between Charleston and Myrtle Beach.
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Ian is really sheared right now, you can see on radar LLC is decoupled from mid level. Mesoscale models show a lopsided storm with no south side. I’m not saying it won’t be impactful but I really doubt this anywhere past low end 1, if that. Pressure decreases will be aided by some of this synoptic stuff slinging it back into the coast
 
12Z Euro pretty much the same as 06Z run. Perhaps a slightly lower pressure at 975mb right off the coast with a landfall between Edisto Beach and Charleston12Zecmwf.png
 
GEFS, more east means stronger and further up the coast... eps might be interesting but just north of Charleston seems to be a good bet

AL09_2022092912_GEFS_0-120h_large.png
 
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