Tropical Hurricane Ian

[Snowfan]

 

[BullCityWx]

Umm this thing coming ashore almost exactly where the ICON shows and this is where it ends up... take it fwiw but something to watch

That angle of landfall is the absolute, positively worst case scenario for the Charleston Metro.

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Shawn]

Does anyone know why models continually initialize pressures too weak? You'd think someone would manually add if needed?

 

[BullCityWx]

Does anyone know why models continually initialize pressures too weak? You'd think someone would manually add if needed?

and that is so important with forecasting a beast like this.

 

[Stormsfury]

Holy Mother of God ...

 

[Taylor C]

So slow.

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Chazwin]

Umm this thing coming ashore almost exactly where the ICON shows and this is where it ends up... take it fwiw but something to watch

As much as I blast the ICON, it has really been rock steady the last several days and is going to closest on the FL landfall. I still have to believe it’s strength here is overdone, but even if it’s 10mb weaker, that’s still a solid category 2

 

[Belle Lechat]

Holy Mother of God ...
View attachment 122412View attachment 122413

222.8 mph. What does that translate down to at the surface, anybody?

 

[LovingGulfLows]

 

[DustinWx]

 

[Chazwin]

Holy Mother of God ...
View attachment 122412View attachment 122413

How far up are those readings?

 

[Snowfan]

 

[Metwannabe]

So what would have been shredding this to pieces if it had been in the northern GOM like it once was forecast, is now basically acting as an exhaust venting the beast. It's almost as if it decided it just wanted to go where the conditions were ripest, insane

 

[Metwannabe]

GFS weaker but basically same track of ICON into SC

 

[Weatherlover92]

ZCZC MIATCUAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1200 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...12 PM EDT IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...EYEWALL OF IAN MOVING ONSHORE AT SANIBEL AND CAPTIVA ISLANDS...

The Government of Cuba has discontinued all Tropical Storm Warnings
for Cuba.

A Weatherflow station near Sanibel Island, Florida recently
reported sustained winds of 71 mph (114 km/h) and a wind gust of
98 mph (158 km/h), and a River, Estuary, and Coastal Network
station at Redfish Pass recently reported sustained winds of 67 mph
(108 km/h) and a wind gust of 84 mph (135 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 82.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WNW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

GFS weaker but basically same track of ICON into SC

GFS looks quite a bit further south coming on shore near HHI

 

[Arcc]

So what would have been shredding this to pieces if it had been in the northern GOM like it once was forecast, is now basically acting as an exhaust venting the beast. It's almost as if it decided it just wanted to go where the conditions were ripest, insane

View attachment 122414

Yep, far enough north to get vented, yet far enough south to still be protected by the anticyclone.

 

[Brick Tamland]

The scene on TWC right now is incredible.