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Tropical Hurricane Ernesto

GaWx said:
1) 0Z Euro: 100 miles W of Bermuda to SE Newfoundland

2) 0Z UKMET: 25 miles W of Bermuda then misses Canada
HURRICANE ERNESTO ANALYSED POSITION : 22.3N 68.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.08.2024 0 22.3N 68.7W 993 48
1200UTC 15.08.2024 12 24.5N 69.4W 989 52
0000UTC 16.08.2024 24 26.4N 68.7W 984 50
1200UTC 16.08.2024 36 28.6N 67.5W 984 54
0000UTC 17.08.2024 48 30.6N 65.9W 980 55
1200UTC 17.08.2024 60 32.1N 65.2W 975 57
0000UTC 18.08.2024 72 33.0N 65.1W 977 58
1200UTC 18.08.2024 84 34.4N 65.0W 980 56
0000UTC 19.08.2024 96 36.9N 64.0W 972 64
1200UTC 19.08.2024 108 40.3N 61.7W 967 67
0000UTC 20.08.2024 120 43.8N 57.2W 971 66
1200UTC 20.08.2024 132 46.7N 49.5W 987 47
0000UTC 21.08.2024 144 49.8N 39.6W 989 43
1200UTC 21.08.2024 156 53.6N 28.1W 977 42
0000UTC 22.08.2024 168 POST-TROPICAL
Click to expand...

85 mph=74 kts. Ernesto is already stronger than anything forecasted in the entire lifetime of this modeling.
 
Next plane

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 74

AFXXX 1305A ERNESTO
Departure Time 15/0900Z 5:00 EDT

Time on Station 15/1100Z TO 15/1430Z 7:00-10:30 EDT
 
455343826_1047461323403871_7335830857406645197_n.jpg
 
Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 15

500 AM AST Thu Aug 15 2024

INIT 15/0900Z 23.9N 69.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 25.4N 69.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 27.4N 68.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 29.3N 66.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 31.1N 65.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 32.6N 65.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 34.3N 65.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 39.7N 62.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 47.0N 52.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
Recon, scheduled to depart in 38 min, is already over the Dominican Republic.

_
Today I learned AST (Puerto Rico) and EDT (Miami) are currently the same time.

6:23 AM
Thursday, August 15, 2024
Atlantic Standard Time (AST)

6:23 AM
Thursday, August 15, 2024
Eastern Time (ET)

_
Bermuda

7:23 AM
Thursday, August 15, 2024 (ADT)
Atlantic Daylight Time
 
Last edited:
14A08/15 2:00 AM23.3N69.1W85MPH979mbNnw at 16 MPHH1Ernesto08/15 1:51 AM
1508/15 5:00 AM23.9N69.1W85MPH979mbN at 13 MPHH1Ernesto08/15 5:00 AM

Ernesto may have reached his furthest west. Has slowed to 13 mph.
 
Belle Lechat said:
Recon, scheduled to depart in 38 min, is already over the Dominican Republic.

_
Today I learned AST (Puerto Rico) and EDT (Miami) are currently the same time.

6:23 AM
Thursday, August 15, 2024
Atlantic Standard Time (AST)

6:23 AM
Thursday, August 15, 2024
Eastern Time (ET)

_
Bermuda

7:23 AM
Thursday, August 15, 2024 (ADT)
Atlantic Daylight Time
Click to expand...
Puerto Rico doesn’t observe DST

Looks like he might be trying to clear out an eye.
 
1723723277928.png


Bonus picture, since I don't have privileges to start a weather/atmospheric art thread in Miscellaneous.

Fujiwara Yasumasa Playing the Flute Under the Moon, 1883


Kb00-001169-0_main-scaled.jpg
 
111900 2423N 06921W 6966 02956 9736 +172 +091 303011 016 018 000 00
111930 2425N 06920W 6964 02948 9736 +164 +094 258008 010 014 001 00
973.6 mb
 
​
11A08/14 8:00 AM19.8N67.2W70MPH991mbNw at 16 MPHTSErnesto08/14 8:00 AM
1208/14 11:00 AM20.5N67.6W75MPH991mbNw at 16 MPHH1Ernesto08/14 11:03 AM
12A08/14 2:00 PM21.1N68.0W75MPH989mbNw at 16 MPHH1Ernesto08/14 1:51 PM
1308/14 5:00 PM21.7N68.3W75MPH989mbNw at 16 MPHH1Ernesto08/14 4:51 PM
13A08/14 8:00 PM22.4N68.7W80MPH981mbNw at 16 MPHH1Ernesto08/14 8:00 PM
1408/14 11:00 PM23.0N68.9W80MPH982mbNnw at 16 MPHH1Ernesto08/14 10:45 PM
14A08/15 2:00 AM23.3N69.1W85MPH979mbNnw at 16 MPHH1Ernesto08/15 1:51 AM
1508/15 5:00 AM23.9N69.1W85MPH979mbN at 13 MPHH1Ernesto08/15 5:00 AM
15A08/15 8:00 AM24.5N69.3W85MPH975mbN at 13 MPHH1Ernesto08/15 7:57 AM
 
Last edited:
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