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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

The WRF-NMM model still with it's ridiculous inland runner. lol
 
These were probably posted and I missed it but here is the 0z eps, more members with inland tracks

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Brasiluvsnow said:
Dorian looks to have really slowed once again , wont this give it time to strengthen , I would think so ?
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Not really, a very slow storm, stalled or nearly stalled, can cause upwelling of cooler waters thus limit strengthening, I don't see it slowing that much however.
 
Some very cold cloud tops on the south side, only thing inhibiting strengthening atm is that dry air, if it gets rid of that will be a small window of opportunity before shear increases.
 
I expect dorian to regain some strength but there are some flies in the ointment.. interaction with trofing and sheer, dry air (not nearly a factor it was yesterday already), and shallow waters the closer it hugs the coast. The eye wall is massive now and it's going to take something major to allow her to shrink again.. and I'm doubting it happens.

Do we see a cat 3 again? not sure.. but she has definitely peaked back over the bahamas.
 
metwannabe said:
These were probably posted and I missed it but here is the 0z eps, more members with inland tracks

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With the models slowing down again wouldnt that indicate that the trough is maybe delayed and therefore not kicking it out to the east fast enough? Wouldnt this allow a longer slower recurve like some of the models show? Seems it doesn't accelerate until after it has already passed NC.
 
That 06z Euro run is a substantial shift East. Good signs for Larry and a lot of SC. Don't get me wrong, impacts will exist, but those stronger winds may stay off shore if this track were to occur before Dorian approaches the OBX. Eyewall size will be important here.
 
Shawn said:
That 06z Euro run is a substantial shift East. Good signs for Larry and a lot of SC. Don't get me wrong, impacts will exist, but those stronger winds may stay off shore if this track were to occur before Dorian approaches the OBX. Eyewall size will be important here.
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So all day yesterday and overnight, the models kept going farther west and inland, and now the Euro goes east. The forecasters are going to have a time trying to nail down the track for this one.
 
I walked along Isle of Palms last night near Breach Inlet. There are several homes that already have severe erosion from the recent high tide cycles. The eroded dune is over 12 ft high and along the edge of it is an in ground pool shell for the home in the picture.

There are several homes on Isle of Palms near the south end that are at risk with the predicted 4-7 ft storm surge above mean high tide.

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Brick Tamland said:
So all day yesterday and overnight, the models kept going farther west and inland, and now the Euro goes east. The forecasters are going to have a time trying to nail down the track for this one.
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The off runs of the Euro have been especially bouncy. I would put my money on the EPS/GEFS combo for track...and they are right on top of each other give or take. I think the brunt of Dorian is going to be from CHS to Oak Island as Dorian will be moving relatively slow still and will probably be a cane still.


GEFSEPScombo.gif
 
KyloG said:
The off runs of the Euro have been especially bouncy. I would put my money on the EPS/GEFS combo for track...and they are right on top of each other give or take. I think the brunt of Dorian is going to be from CHS to Oak Island as Dorian will be moving relatively slow still and will probably be a cane still.


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Probably a topic for another time, but that sounds like it could be more proof that 06 and 18z cycles are a bad idea (at least long range) to put much stock into. But as has been said before, more runs in theory = more silly runs possible. We've seen it a long time with the american models.
 
Shawn said:
That 06z Euro run is a substantial shift East. Good signs for Larry and a lot of SC. Don't get me wrong, impacts will exist, but those stronger winds may stay off shore if this track were to occur before Dorian approaches the OBX. Eyewall size will be important here.
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Nothings come easy with Dorian. Model consistency run to run has been shaky. Nightmare for forecasters since day 1 with this hurricane.
 
KyloG said:
The off runs of the Euro have been especially bouncy. I would put my money on the EPS/GEFS combo for track...and they are right on top of each other give or take. I think the brunt of Dorian is going to be from CHS to Oak Island as Dorian will be moving relatively slow still and will probably be a cane still.


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I agree with you 100%..... HWRF and HMON support that idea also.
 
Shaggy said:
Nothings come easy with Dorian. Model consistency run to run has been shaky. Nightmare for forecasters since day 1 with this hurricane.
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I'm holding out some hope that 12z guidance follows it. Either way, Levi continues to affirm in video and his Twitter that the Western side of the storm is going to be expansive and problematic regardless of where the center is. Still bad for coastal regions.
 
Shawn said:
I'm holding out some hope that 12z guidance follows it. Either way, Levi continues to affirm in video and his Twitter that the Western side of the storm is going to be expansive and problematic regardless of where the center is. Still bad for coastal regions.
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I'm one county west of the hurricane warning. Officially saying I could see gust to 60 but most models have me knocking on or in hurricane force gust. Track is gonna be critical for my little stretch of central eastern NC.
 
Seems like some outer banding already rotating down the coast. Don't need any bonus saturation before the storm arrives.
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Something else to remember regarding shear.

One, hurricanes with large eyes are much more resistant to shear and dry air. Throw out ERCs as well being much less likely.

Two, as the system turns NE, it will nullify some of the shear. In fact the growing outflow may cancel out the weakening effect entirely.

Don’t be surprised to see it regain Cat 3 as it closes in on SC and NC. That said, I don’t see any way it goes over 120-125mph if every thing for strengthening went perfect.
 
PEA_RIDGE said:
CURRENT RECON HAS IT AT 963MB AND MOVING NW

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The overall motion since I last posted 5 or so hours ago has been NNW rather than NW thank goodness. I feel so much better about the GA coast now vs that way west 18Z Euro. After the 0Z Euro came back east quite a bit, even more good news with the 6Z Euro going even further east and correcting with reality. Meanwhile, the NHC track is steady as a rock and doing very well!
I shouldn’t have let that 18Z Euro worry me like it did. Thank goodness it will verify as having been way too far west!

Edit: I’m even feeling a bit better about CHS vs how it earlier looked due to the limited west component of motion the last several hours.
 
Well here s Dorian from Conyers Ga
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Arcc said:
Something else to remember regarding shear.

One, hurricanes with large eyes are much more resistant to shear and dry air. Throw out ERCs as well being much less likely.

Two, as the system turns NE, it will nullify some of the shear. In fact the growing outflow may cancel out the weakening effect entirely.

Don’t be surprised to see it regain Cat 3 as it closes in on SC and NC. That said, I don’t see any way it goes over 120-125mph if every thing for strengthening went perfect.
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Also the pressure is already low, so the winds can increase without much of a pressure drop, if it does manage to tighten that eye up back down to 30-40 miles and get a strong band around it then I could also see 120 being doable.....still that is unlikely, intensity forecasting sucks he looks better and better every hr....
 
Latest from Greg Fishel.

RECON REPORTS DON’T SHOW STRENGTHENING YET BUT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND A SMALLER AREA NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THIS COULD BE A SIGN OF FUTURE INTENSIFICATION OF DORIAN. WATCHING CAREFULLY!
 
First outer band just came through Mt Pleasant, SC. My PWS picked up .20" of rain and a gust to 12 MPH. I'm near IOP Connector and US-17. Checking weather stations on IOP there were gusts to 40.
 
Not sure how it compares to past runs, but the 12z HRRR is also pretty far to the east.

The outer eye wall only brushes the SC coast through 12z Thursday.
 
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