Snowflowxxl
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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
I Agree, and any westerly component from here on in is BAD news....as you know, Larry
New recon about to take off
Cadi40
Member
I would say it's moving NW however the eye can be deceiving.
From a larger overview, i can see how it does look to be going west more so on the last few frames..
levi mentioned this in his latest video with the digging trough and slower storm motion... pulling it closer into the coast.
levi mentioned this in his latest video with the digging trough and slower storm motion... pulling it closer into the coast.
Tiny bit of good news for GA: the NHC position at 11 PM is 28.4N, 79.0W vs the 18Z Euro's 28.4N, 79.2W. So, the actual location is 0.2 degrees (~14 miles) EAST of the scary 18Z Euro.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
These latest WNW wobbles may put that 14 miles in jeopardy in a hurry.
blueheronNC
Member
3km NAM brings 70mph wind gusts into portions of the Triangle with hints of a sting jet developing. Also depicts supercellular structures from Goldsboro east in bands. Horrible run for even inland places.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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The new 11pm official NHC cone/track, is slightly East
Henry2326
Member
Shaggy
Member
What a grueling storm. 72 hours and it is hopefully on the way to the north atlantic
Henry2326
Member
Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019
Dorian's structure has changed significantly during the past day or
so. Satellite and Doppler radar images show that the inner core has
become rather broad with a large ragged eye of at least 30 n mi
diameter. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate
that the maximum winds and minimum pressure have held steady since
this afternoon, and based on that information, the initial
intensity is held at 95 kt, but this could be a little generous.
The aircraft data and surface observations indicate that the wind
field is expanding in size with tropical-storm-force and
hurricane-force winds extending up to 150 n mi and 50 n mi from the
center, respectively. NOAA data buoy 41010 just northeast of the
center has been reporting sustained winds as high as 60 kt with
gusts to 78 kt, and seas over 30 ft.
Dorian is finally on the move again, and the latest initial motion
estimate is 340 degrees at 5 kt. Dorian is being steered by the
flow between a mid-level ridge to the east and broad troughing to
its north. A northwest to north motion with some increase in
forward speed is expected through Wednesday, taking the core of
Dorian just offshore and parallel to the east coast of Florida
during that time. Thereafter, a faster motion toward the northeast
is predicted as a series of shortwave troughs move across the
northeastern U.S. This should take the core of the hurricane
very near, or possibly over, the coasts of South and North Carolina
on Thursday and Friday. After it passes the Outer Banks, the
hurricane is forecast to accelerate northeastward in the stronger
mid-latitude flow toward the Canadian Maritimes this weekend.
The NHC track forecast is largely unchanged and near the middle of
the tightly packed guidance envelope.
The hurricane is in a favorable environment of low wind shear, high
moisture, and warm SSTs, and it is expected to stay in these
conditions until it nears the Carolina coast. Therefore, Dorian is
expected to remain about the same intensity during the next couple
of days. After that time, an increase in shear from the
mid-latitude trough and drier air should cause Dorian to slowly
weaken. The GFS and ECMWF models both show Dorian becoming an
extratropical system by 96 hours, and the official forecast follows
those solutions. As this system gains latitude, the wind field is
expected to expand even more. Therefore, even if Dorian does not
make landfall, hurricane-force winds are expected to reach portions
of the coast from central Florida to North Carolina.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019
Dorian's structure has changed significantly during the past day or
so. Satellite and Doppler radar images show that the inner core has
become rather broad with a large ragged eye of at least 30 n mi
diameter. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate
that the maximum winds and minimum pressure have held steady since
this afternoon, and based on that information, the initial
intensity is held at 95 kt, but this could be a little generous.
The aircraft data and surface observations indicate that the wind
field is expanding in size with tropical-storm-force and
hurricane-force winds extending up to 150 n mi and 50 n mi from the
center, respectively. NOAA data buoy 41010 just northeast of the
center has been reporting sustained winds as high as 60 kt with
gusts to 78 kt, and seas over 30 ft.
Dorian is finally on the move again, and the latest initial motion
estimate is 340 degrees at 5 kt. Dorian is being steered by the
flow between a mid-level ridge to the east and broad troughing to
its north. A northwest to north motion with some increase in
forward speed is expected through Wednesday, taking the core of
Dorian just offshore and parallel to the east coast of Florida
during that time. Thereafter, a faster motion toward the northeast
is predicted as a series of shortwave troughs move across the
northeastern U.S. This should take the core of the hurricane
very near, or possibly over, the coasts of South and North Carolina
on Thursday and Friday. After it passes the Outer Banks, the
hurricane is forecast to accelerate northeastward in the stronger
mid-latitude flow toward the Canadian Maritimes this weekend.
The NHC track forecast is largely unchanged and near the middle of
the tightly packed guidance envelope.
The hurricane is in a favorable environment of low wind shear, high
moisture, and warm SSTs, and it is expected to stay in these
conditions until it nears the Carolina coast. Therefore, Dorian is
expected to remain about the same intensity during the next couple
of days. After that time, an increase in shear from the
mid-latitude trough and drier air should cause Dorian to slowly
weaken. The GFS and ECMWF models both show Dorian becoming an
extratropical system by 96 hours, and the official forecast follows
those solutions. As this system gains latitude, the wind field is
expected to expand even more. Therefore, even if Dorian does not
make landfall, hurricane-force winds are expected to reach portions
of the coast from central Florida to North Carolina.
Not discounting this, but am a bit puzzled. Why would the Triangle get higher wind gusts than counties E of us in this scenario?
Shaggy
Member
Blend that with the slightly off coast models and that's not unreasonable.
dsaur
Member
I'm taken with how many structures remained standing in the Bahamas, then heard from the PM that the codes in place must meet 150 mph. Impressive. What are the codes in Sav, Larry? Anywhere near that? Has Sav been hit with 150 plus in the last century?
Interaction with the trough and transitioning to extra tropical as it passes by helps bring those powerful winds just overhead down to the surface, especially on the west side. Unique but not rare
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Brent
Member
Recon showing a left turn towards FL
Downeastnc
Member
The run ended close to that frame so that was just 1 hr, there would be hrs of that kind of wind from the Triangle to the coast.....it was not a total wind gust for the event map but rather a snapshot of just 1 hr. Think of it as a deform band in the winter it will pivot and move east as the center of the low moves east....
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I know the latest NHC update says a NNW heading but per the latest recon data, that’s wrong. It’s most definitely NW with even a WNW bobble.
SCWXGuy
Member
11 pm update from Rob Fowler (Ch 2 in CHS) shows 30-40% chance of hurricane gusts up to 85 MPH on immediate coast. All talk is on storm surge threat.
GFS a tad west vs previous run
Thanks Met. I'm skeptical of gusts being that high locally, but I'm certainly not discounting it.
Looks like your location gets similar impacts as mine if this prediction holds.
Yeah I tried to share the gif, never worked but we were in those gust for 4-6 hours easily
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Gotcha. I'm assuming a total wind gust map of NC would be more uniform from E to W. Would make more sense geographically.
Downeastnc
Member
Buoy 41010 is 40 miles from the center and gusting into the 80's this should be NE of the center
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41010
This one is 20 miles east of Cape Canaveral and is gusting into the 70's so the higher winds are not that far off the coast
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41009
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41010
This one is 20 miles east of Cape Canaveral and is gusting into the 70's so the higher winds are not that far off the coast
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41009
I'm skeptical of those gust too as shown by the 3k NAM but it has happened before in these situations. Just something to be aware of as possible
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Cadi40
Member
Is this going to hit Florida?
Downeastnc
Member
If by hit you mean the center come on shore....probably not....but I would say that it is already "hitting" Florida.
Brent
Member
been the story since the start, I remember when landfall was gonna be Saturday Night in FL and here we are on almost Wednesday and it hasn't even cleared half of FL yet
Henry2326
Member
September 3, 2019
COLUMBIA, S.C. – Residents in designated evacuation zones must leave no later than Wednesday morning to reach a safe distance from Hurricane Dorian. Due to the increasing threat of dangerous conditions such as storm surge and high winds, now is the time to heed the evacuation order issued by Governor Henry McMaster.
Lane reversal operations on I-26 will cease at noon Wednesday so that crews can seek shelter at safe locations outside of the storm’s projected path.
As a reminder, residents in the following zones must evacuate now:
Beaufort County Evacuation Zone A
Berkeley County Evacuation Zones B, G
Charleston County Evacuation Zones A, B, C
Colleton County Evacuation Zones A, B
Dorchester County Evacuation Zone D
Georgetown County Evacuation Zone A
Horry County Evacuation Zone A
Jasper County Evacuation Zone A
Based on the storm’s projected path along with predicted storm surge and high tides, roads may be inaccessible due to flooding, bridges may be closed due to high winds and emergency help may not be available.
Beginning Wednesday afternoon, travel may not be possible on the following high level, coastal bridges due to safety concerns brought on by expected tropical storm force winds:
McTeer Bridge (US 21 ALT) in Beaufort County
Don Holt Bridge over the Cooper River (I-526) in Berkeley County
Stono River Bridge (SC 700) in Charleston County
Ravenel Bridge & Ramps (US 17) in Charleston County
Wando River Bridge (I-526) in Charleston County
Wando Bridge (SC 41) in Charleston County
Isle of Palms Connector (SC 517) in Charleston County
Bridge over the Sam Pit River (US 17) in Georgetown County
Bridge over the Intercoastal Waterway at Socastee (US 17) in Horry County
Little River Bridge (US 17) in Horry County
Pee Dee River Bridge (US 701) in Horry County
Open evacuation shelter locations are available on scemd.org and in the SC Emergency Manager mobile app as soon as they are opened.
People leaving the coast should pack the following essential items in case the evacuation period is lengthy: required medications, adequate clothing and essential personal items. Residents going to evacuation shelters should bring their own blankets, pillows, cots and special food items if they are on restricted diets.
Pet owners should plan to board their animals with veterinarians, kennels, or other facilities in non-vulnerable areas. While pets are not allowed inside Red Cross evacuation shelters, people with animals can take their pets with them to any shelter so volunteers can help them make arrangements.
The South Carolina Public Information Phone System is available 24 hours a day for anyone that needs assistance. Call 1-866-246-0133 with any questions related to Hurricane Dorian.
COLUMBIA, S.C. – Residents in designated evacuation zones must leave no later than Wednesday morning to reach a safe distance from Hurricane Dorian. Due to the increasing threat of dangerous conditions such as storm surge and high winds, now is the time to heed the evacuation order issued by Governor Henry McMaster.
Lane reversal operations on I-26 will cease at noon Wednesday so that crews can seek shelter at safe locations outside of the storm’s projected path.
As a reminder, residents in the following zones must evacuate now:
Beaufort County Evacuation Zone A
Berkeley County Evacuation Zones B, G
Charleston County Evacuation Zones A, B, C
Colleton County Evacuation Zones A, B
Dorchester County Evacuation Zone D
Georgetown County Evacuation Zone A
Horry County Evacuation Zone A
Jasper County Evacuation Zone A
Based on the storm’s projected path along with predicted storm surge and high tides, roads may be inaccessible due to flooding, bridges may be closed due to high winds and emergency help may not be available.
Beginning Wednesday afternoon, travel may not be possible on the following high level, coastal bridges due to safety concerns brought on by expected tropical storm force winds:
McTeer Bridge (US 21 ALT) in Beaufort County
Don Holt Bridge over the Cooper River (I-526) in Berkeley County
Stono River Bridge (SC 700) in Charleston County
Ravenel Bridge & Ramps (US 17) in Charleston County
Wando River Bridge (I-526) in Charleston County
Wando Bridge (SC 41) in Charleston County
Isle of Palms Connector (SC 517) in Charleston County
Bridge over the Sam Pit River (US 17) in Georgetown County
Bridge over the Intercoastal Waterway at Socastee (US 17) in Horry County
Little River Bridge (US 17) in Horry County
Pee Dee River Bridge (US 701) in Horry County
Open evacuation shelter locations are available on scemd.org and in the SC Emergency Manager mobile app as soon as they are opened.
People leaving the coast should pack the following essential items in case the evacuation period is lengthy: required medications, adequate clothing and essential personal items. Residents going to evacuation shelters should bring their own blankets, pillows, cots and special food items if they are on restricted diets.
Pet owners should plan to board their animals with veterinarians, kennels, or other facilities in non-vulnerable areas. While pets are not allowed inside Red Cross evacuation shelters, people with animals can take their pets with them to any shelter so volunteers can help them make arrangements.
The South Carolina Public Information Phone System is available 24 hours a day for anyone that needs assistance. Call 1-866-246-0133 with any questions related to Hurricane Dorian.