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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

metwannabe said:
The NAM stayed offshore, 06z GFS is slightly east and stays offshore, Dorian appears to be drifting n/nw, Grand Bahama getting southern eyewall now..... need to watch that trough and Atlantic ridge closely but atm I feel better about it never making LF, close but just offshore.
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00z HWRF darn close south of JAX, then tries at Charleston and success further north. 06z running now. JAX and beginning at Charleston through the end of the runs seem to be the pinch points throughout the models.
 
Henry2326 said:
00z HWRF darn close south of JAX, then tries at Charleston and success further north. 06z running now. JAX and beginning at Charleston through the end of the runs seem to be the pinch points throughout the models.
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Looks like its caving to the other models as usual.


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Although modeling looks to have stopped westward shift for now, certainly couldn't stand too many more shifts like this



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metwannabe said:
Although modeling looks to have stopped westward shift for now, certainly couldn't stand too many more shifts like this



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Difficult for me to believe we will get out of this one unscathed. Waiting for the boot to drop concerning some little piece of data that has a huge impact that we just don't know yet.
 
Another tick west by the 6z GFS.

Though looks like Euro ticker east from its 18z run.

FC8083E2-FB57-4601-BE94-2FADDFF66E3E.gif
 
HWRF on shore in SC and HMON in NC. RGEM wobbles very close to FL coast at points. It may just be nowcast for days.
 
Looking at how a few models have performed over past 48 hours. Looked at Euro/GFS/UK runs from 2 days for Dorians current position.

Quickly looked at the ICON/CMC/GFS-L and they weren't very good.


GFS north of Dorian. HWRF had similar position as GFS.

GFS 50-STATES USA Florida 850 hPa Wind 48.png

Euro south of Dorian:


9-km ECMWF USA Surface +3-Hourly Florida MSLP 48.png


UK looks spot on.

Screen Shot 2019-09-02 at 7.39.24 AM.png
 
KyloG said:
Looking at how a few models have performed over past 48 hours. Looked at Euro/GFS/UK runs from 2 days for Dorians current position.

Quickly looked at the ICON/CMC/GFS-L and they weren't very good.


GFS north of Dorian. HWRF had similar position as GFS.

View attachment 22862

Euro south of Dorian:


View attachment 22863


UK looks spot on.

View attachment 22864
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Don’t forget the UK runs into the Gulf several days out in forecast time that were then well west of the consensus that was over or just east of FL. Then after runs like that, it suddenly came way back east to join the consensus.
 
GaWx said:
Don’t forget the UK runs into the Gulf several days out in forecast time that were then well west of the consensus that was over or just east of FL. Then after runs like that, it suddenly came way back east to join the consensus.
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They all did in the extended. There probably is some bias with the UK after day 3-4 that contributed to that. But it’s doing fairly good inside hour 60.

The Euro has done an awful job with Dorian over the past couple of days and that’s inside hour 60.
 
GaWx said:
Don’t forget the UK runs into the Gulf several days out in forecast time that were then well west of the consensus that was over or just east of FL. Then after runs like that, it suddenly came way back east to join the consensus.
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The euro also had multiple gulf runs as well


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KyloG said:
They all did in the extended. There probably is some bias with the UK after day 3-4 that contributed to that. But it’s doing fairly good inside hour 60.

The Euro has done an awful job with Dorian over the past couple of days and that’s inside hour 60.
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Yeah it started the garbage of going way OTS and was last to come back from it. As mentioned it screwed up on Florence last year, so it only seems to be continuing missing big storms.
 
Concern now that the projected stall has occured is how far NW does it get towards Florida and SC and does it skirt the capes of NC or does it move on a floyd type track. Angle of approach to NC has some pretty big impacts. If its NNE across the inner banks versus ENE just along the capes changes weather for the piedmont and coastal plains a lot.
 
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Cloud tops warming, eyewall breaking down, ERC is underway while it is stalled and upwelling so this could knock him down a category or two....should hopefully stay at least 50-75 miles east of Florida, even then though some hurricane force gust and surge issues will be possible all the way up along the coast of Fl from Cape Canerval north .....then the question becomes how bad of a hit does the Carolina's take and what kind of storm will he be then....
 
Sunrise over Hurricane Dorian.

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Ethan80963 said:
I’m noticing the AVNI aka the GFS on the 18z has it hitting the outter banks this run vs previous run that showed ots

18zView attachment 22500

12zView attachment 22501
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Bumping this to show one of the far left UKMET runs into the NE Gulf before a sudden correction well to the east the very next run. Note that the UKMET 12Z run shown here (bottom map) had him south of Lake Okeech. at hour 96 moving WNW. That is pretty bad. The Euro’s 12Z run that day was the first one that had the stall near where it is now and then not hit FL at all instead of traveling up the peninsula. So, way better than the UKMET then and a great run for the Euro. The Euro’s been similar since. That’s pretty good imo.
 
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Wondering If models see the EWC and can forecast it? If not I could see a wider shield of wind and rain than they depict.
 
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