• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Not a stall technically but it moved at only 2-3 mph from hour 72 to 96 and is not coming onshore in central FL now. It I now moving NNw at hours 102-108!
 
You can already see the second trough digging in the midwest, this one will most likely pick it up.... does it come inland any, hug the coast, stay ots?????

1567189157604.png
 
Holy shoot on the 12Z Euro, what a change! An outlier of sorts but interesting. Raises risk further north, expecially Carolinas.
 
metwannabe said:
Probably not.... as Larry mentioned it did not completely stall, it would have to stall out completely for some time to allow upwelling to cool the waters for that.
Click to expand...
It basically sits there for 24hrs but the wind field expands
 
GaWx said:
Not a stall technically but it moved at only 2-3 mph from hour 72 to 96 and is not coming onshore in central FL now. It I now moving NNw at hours 102-108!
Click to expand...
Running parallel to the Fl coast @120 it appears... also trough dropping down
 
My lord, the Euro may finally take this thing OTS on the following frames!!! Lets hope!
 
Euro: center will miss SC. Now let's see about NC. Could barely stay offshore. We'll see!
 
Will Rossman said:
As accurate as the Euro tends to be, it shows the storm too weak on this run. I wonder how a storm stronger than what the Euro depicts would affect its path.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

I know I've been told that it's tough for storms to get the correct initialization, but this one initialized 21 MB too high.
 
GaWx said:
Euro: center will miss SC. Now let's see about NC. Could barely stay offshore. We'll see!
Click to expand...
Unfortunately it looks like the trough is not gonna kick it NE but pull it north (on this run) but maybe I'm wrong...
 
Dorian might make landfall in NC after hr. 144, it will be close.

EDIT: So much for that model consensus, I don't feel anymore confident in Dorian's track post Bahamas now than I did 24hrs ago, 48hrs ago, or 96 hrs. ago.
 
Wow. Monster CAT 4 or stronger off Myrtle Beach. Very intense run.
 
honestly its another different look from the doc. Like it hit a big wall and slammed the breaks before land. Thats also a new look too...This run would put NC in full alert mode.
 
deltadog03 said:
honestly its another different look from the doc. Like it hit a big wall and slammed the breaks before land. Thats also a new look too...This run would put NC in full alert mode.
Click to expand...
It is but also it isn't.... is it? I mean the last several runs had it turning north (maybe not stalling out but slowing), just seems it turned sooner this run. Either way, track wise it's certainly different and a head ache for the NHC
 
metwannabe said:
It is but also it isn't.... is it? I mean the last several runs had it turning north (maybe not stalling out but slowing), just seems it turned sooner this run. Either way, track wise it's certainly different and a head ache for the NHC
Click to expand...
no doubt...the slowing and turn for sure we know that will happen, but like this sucker hit the breaks hard...and the TT maps are every 24 hour...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top