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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Seeing the flood potential with huge left of track rainfall amounts as @SD first mentioned yesterday, seeing that on this run of the GFS
 
This is another flood potential brewing.... (for a lot of areas, I'm really focused on NC for this one post)

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Legacy gives a good example at 946....same path. The pressure slides down slower....cat1 in charleston rather than tropical.
 
I would say based off how things look in the short range now for several runs, anybody within at least 30 miles of the cities up and down the coast from Jupiter to Titusville need to seriously consider evacuating, or at least making major preparations.

I've been on I-75 in Florida with holiday traffic before and we were stuck sitting in traffic for at least two hours (I'd have been pulling my hair out at some points if I didn't lay my head down), I can't imagine how I-95 is going to look in a day or two. It's going to be a huge mess.
 
Dorian this is just insulting even if it's bit out there...

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"Let's do this again….NOT, in NC areas that had huge flooding impacts just last year from Florence".
 
GFS run impacts FL to NC. Seems like more and more we are getting the hit to FL and eventually going NE.
 
the question I have is does the circulation have enough structure left when it drifts back offshore to reorganize enough to hit NC as a cane, the wind field is liable to be pretty spread out so it would be very hard I think for it to tighten up the center enough to regain anything more than a weak TS status....
 
12z Legacy, same path as GFS, but lower pressure that might be better represented. Frankly, just more....gfs-legacy_apcpn_us_33.png
 
Downeastnc said:
the question I have is does the circulation have enough structure left when it drifts back offshore to reorganize enough to hit NC as a cane, the wind field is liable to be pretty spread out so it would be very hard I think for it to tighten up the center enough to regain anything more than a weak TS status....
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Problem is on that run of the GFS the center never gets too far inland, in fact partially over water at times.... shoot it even gets 50 mph wind gust back as far west as RDU
 
metwannabe said:
Problem is on that run of the GFS the center never gets too far inland, in fact partially over water at times.... shoot it even gets 50 mph wind gust back as far west as RDU
Click to expand...

Is that from the interaction with the jet?


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metwannabe said:
Problem is on that run of the GFS the center never gets too far inland, in fact partially over water at times.... shoot it even gets 50 mph wind gust back as far west as RDU
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Yeah but it spends a solid 40-48 hrs with the center over land even if it isnt that far inland that would be enough to really disrupt it.....but if enough of the core survives who knows....it spends about 30 hrs back over water though all of it probably within 50-100 miles of the coast.....still that will be some warm damn water.....
 
I think they are shifting north because of the strength I noticed on the last euro ensembles the strongest ones turn north faster so even an ots solution is on the cards if this was to slow down like is predicted imo
 
Rain Cold said:
Better hope that trough up north catches it or it's gonna rain itself out.
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Rivers are low but I dunno if they can handle 12-15" basin wide, the Neuse/Tar/Cape Fear would flood but minor or major is the question..and flash flooding would be very bad, lots of washed out roads that just got fixed last year would need to be replaced again....
 
Brent said:
UKMET Is really terrible this season it was horrible with Barry too

I know people say its good but I'm trying to remember when cause all I remember are fails
Click to expand...

Agree, it has it's moments but the fact that it was further east this run is interesting. It's been the most west model until today.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
High end cat 3 over Charleston oy! I was in Charleston a few months back and a thunderstorm flooded a lot of areas and closed roads.
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YES....it hasn't had a direct hit in some time. Matthew offshore cat2 flooded the city. High tide would be a disaster.

Cat2 surge map at high tide.....anything bigger....you get the idea.

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