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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Brick Tamland said:
Looks like for now the NHC is going with it hitting FL and then turning NE up through the state and then GA, SC, and NC instead of continuing to go west and into the Gulf. This could end up wrecking almost the whole state of FL and doing serious damage to the coasts of GA, SC, and NC.
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Worse case imo
 
Brick Tamland said:
Looks like for now the NHC is going with it hitting FL and then turning NE up through the state and then GA, SC, and NC instead of continuing to go west and into the Gulf. This could end up wrecking almost the whole state of FL and doing serious damage to the coasts of GA, SC, and NC.
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NHC track does not send it up through Ga, SC & NC.... their track ends in Fl (only goes out 5 days). Don't be fooled by the rain map posted that is generated from the WPC. Just have to be careful with statements like that's all..
 
Arcc said:
Something else to think about. If it does slow down near the southern FL coast, it will do so over the Gulf Stream with pretty high TCHP. Upwelling will not be an issue. That along with Florida being flat, should it reach Cat 4 or Cat 5, it could sustain that for a long while. That would put the northern eyewall onshore for hours before it makes landfall and starts losing some punch.
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Yeah Andrew was similar and did the same thing it actually weakened over the Bahamas and then 12 years later was upgraded for the final hours over the Gulf Stream

Also Andrew was moving rapidly this will not be
 
metwannabe said:
NHC track does not send it up through Ga, SC & NC.... their track ends in Fl (only goes out 5 days). Don't be fooled by the rain map posted that is generated from the WPC. Just have to be careful with statements like that's all..
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Okay, but looking at their track, it sure looks to be headed that way.
 
metwannabe said:
It's also showing this sooooo... not saying it's wrong but all those other systems effect the upper air pattern, not sure about that yet.

View attachment 22448
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Yeah hard to say who’s right but with every other model doing the Waffle House waffle just makes you wonder if it’s onto something. Especially with the best UK model on its side.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Okay, but looking at their track, it sure looks to be headed that way.
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It might head that way and extrapolated out yes that's what it looks like but beyond that it could turn west or NE or east. Way too early to tell, a few days ago if you looked at the 5 day cone and extrapolated it out it was headed for GOM.

Actually several days ago we thought it was headed for the shredder post day 5..... so yeah forecast change and often

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metwannabe said:
NHC track does not send it up through Ga, SC & NC.... their track ends in Fl (only goes out 5 days). Don't be fooled by the rain map posted that is generated from the WPC. Just have to be careful with statements like that's all..
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That north turn is seriously sharp on the NHC track.....a error of 75 miles one way or the other on that turn has huge implications for conditions in Florida.....and depending on how east it goes for SC/NC downstream if the storm does not miss east....
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Yeah hard to say who’s right but with every other model doing the Waffle House waffle just makes you wonder if it’s onto something. Especially with the best UK model on its side.
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I don't disagree at all and it may very well end up on the GOM side of FL... but the Ukmet does at times have that left bias and will stick to it's guns until the very last minute (I'm not real sure of any ICON biases or how well it's faired overall with TC's). And while the Euro was back and forth a little bit early on, it's pretty locked on the north turn. Let's see what both do here in a bit and hope the picture becomes a little clearer (I doubt it does but one can hope)
 
Brick Tamland said:
Looks like for now the NHC is going with it hitting FL and then turning NE up through the state and then GA, SC, and NC instead of continuing to go west and into the Gulf. This could end up wrecking almost the whole state of FL and doing serious damage to the coasts of GA, SC, and NC.
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Not concerned at the moment here near the Charleston coast in the scenario of it recurving and making a slow march up FL over land before coming here. This has been expected. It will have a lot of time over land to spin down before we would get the backside. Rain will be an issue for low lying and flood prone areas, but not a wind event that would do any considerable damage. It's better it is slow moving as it pertains to CHS as it will allow for the peak King Tides to pass which are occurring through early next week. Also, it has been dry here this summer and we can handle the rain.

Both Irma and Michael took these tracks over GA and SC and it wasn't more than a breezy, rainy day.

If it raked the coast (like Matthew) over water that is a different issue and would likely result in some erosion, but would also keep the coast out of the dirty side of the storm sparing the worst. Not seeing any indications of a direct hit (like Hugo). The way things are looking a day or two of fairly heavy rain and some wind gusts for CHS mid to late next week. Preparing for the possibility of a short duration power failure and some minor yard cleanup from weak branches.

Focus needs to be on the areas that will take the landfall and hours of surge as it lumbers ashore.
 
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GFS getting ready to come in at hour 72. Did look north but it's hooking west now.

Edit: and now intensifying, crud.
 
yike
gfs_mslp_wind_seus_14.png
 
yeah I spoke too soon on GFS getting ready to come in. Was heading straight west and now it hooks north suddenly for some reason.
 
And the ICON returns it to beast status off the SE coast, thank goodness it's heading NE and "hopefully" that trough sliding down in behind the H in the NE will continue to kick it out.

1567180498274.png
 
Interesting look on the 12Z ICON. Brings him in near Hollywood then crosses the peninsula emerging in the gulf just North of Tampa then moves back into into Florida near the Cedar Keys again crosses the peninsula and reemerges into the Atlantic near St. Augustine.
 
Seriously, if you live anywhere in Florida, do you evacuate the whole state?
 
The weakness to his NE is quickly filling up and the ridges are almost "bridged" and its starting to move almost due west at that point. The "escape" OTS is quickly leaving to its NE
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
GFS trying to live up to its real name Goofus. A storm this size can not abruptly go from due west to due north just like that.
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Sure it can, if the ridge is weakening then canes can and do stop on dimes, change direction suddenly etc....I have seen them do all manner of weird things off the NC coast when the steering currents are weak, changing etc....
 
deltadog03 said:
The weakness to his NE is quickly filling up and the ridges are almost "bridged" and its starting to move almost due west at that point. The "escape" OTS is quickly leaving to its NE
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No doubt... curious to see how the trough that is just starting to dig in midwest will effect that ridge and create another weakness in the next few frames (IF).
1567180828930.png
 
This big bit@$ it clearly getting stronger by the hour. Look at the simulated IR and look at the southern end of it. The out flow to the South clearly shows no shear and no dry air. Also I'm seeing a due West track last several frames

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uh oh, this run doesn't have the recurve yet at 138:

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Good thing is this is a weakening TS over land by then but crud, that increases possible flooding impacts.
 
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