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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Skims coast near Pompano Beach at 138 and then moves northward at 144 skimming near West Palm. Now going to go back offshore I think.

Edit: yep, moving back offshore northward
 
GaWx said:
Skims coast near pompano Beach at 138 and then moves northward at 144 skimming near West Palm. Now going to go back offshore I think
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Yep, it went further south but then slowed enough to start turning north sooner or should I say before getting too far inland. This thing could still miss land...
 
That trof is going to move out quickly tho too. The ridges are already trying to re-build over the top. It could move so slow off the SE coast of FL that it gets pulled north (with trof effects) then stall because that pushes out and ridges bridge over again.
 
Can you imagine if it was forecast to turn away from Miami so they didn’t evac then when you wake up it accidentally hits as a Cat 5 by sliding west too much?
 
metwannabe said:
Massive trough diving south, hope it kicks the hades out of Dorian and doesn't just pull it north..... good grief, so things are really clearing up huh?

View attachment 22346
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I don't know if thats simple though. Next frame will be telling. That trof has a lot of work to fully pull Dorian out that quickly. The ridges are gonna wanna bridge back over the top of it.
 
GaWx said:
12Z Euro: 2nd landfall Canaveral
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This is what worries me too though. If it slows that much, that trof is not going to be able to pull this out and miss... Look how the ridges have already bridged over and trapped Dorian. In fact, wouldn't be surprised if it meanders a bit or pulls NW inland.

ecmwf_z500aNorm_us_8.png
 
deltadog03 said:
That trof is going to move out quickly tho too. The ridges are already trying to re-build over the top. It could move so slow off the SE coast of FL that it gets pulled north (with trof effects) then stall because that pushes out and ridges bridge over again.
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You nailed it, trough exiting stage right, ridge building in...
 
This is why no one should say Florida is certain. Wouldn’t take much to avoid Florida landfall altogether. Few miles east it’s over the open water and STRONG.
 
ecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_9.png

Now heading into southeastern GA.
 
GaWx said:
Massive rains Jupiter to St Augustine so far as it barely moves near or just offshore FL NE coast.
3rd landfall Jax Beach! Now turned inland.
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Meandering along the NE Florida coast would be really bad for the Georgia coast, too. Days of onshore water push plus copious amounts of rain in Southeast Georgia.

—30—


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deltadog03 said:
don't be surprised if this is a very rare moving WNW or NW from there landfall type... (again just this run, and another solution!) The ridges have bridged over and nothing to really kick this out.
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Which is very scary if it avoids Florida and makes a rare NW run into inland south-east. Would be someone else’s Hugo to deal with. Unlikely tho IMO.
 
There would be Massive Evacuations from Miami all the way up to Georgia if this Model came true and took a path like that !!!!!!
 
Still ridging overhead Dorian as it heads into GA, has nowhere to really go, just gonna float wherever it wants until it can get kicked out, man What a run
 
Craziest model run yet. Dorian just rides up the whole east coast of Florida.
 
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