Ethan80963!
Member
HWRF has it at 959 by this time tomorrow
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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
Ukie 1st landfall
and 2nd landfall which is just as strong if not stronger
and 2nd landfall which is just as strong if not stronger
Jessy89
Member
pcbjr
Member
Too bad there isn't a line in there between the frames; interested in where the model shows it crossing.
Somebody has better map then this of the Ukie @KyloG anybody.... but the blue line Phil is the Ukmet
pcbjr
Member
Thanks. That would be horrible for Tampa (NE quad). Other than that, the cows would get a face whoopin' ...
GEFS has all kinds of options also, still looks like a recurve at some point just too bad the damage may be done by then... still hope it slows down
Dude!! Thanks..
Jessy89
Member
The most certain thing is a Florida landfall after that is still in question
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Brent
Member
Through 120 hours the GEFS is pretty tightly clustered over Central Florida
Probable yes but imo not most certain at all....
I fully agree!
So do they no longer have satellite images with the forecast points overlayed on it? Used to be like that on the floater on NHC site...
pcbjr
Member
From the NHC site (there's a button to click up top) - you can choose your satellite image also ... https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=taw&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24
Thanks Phil, I've found those, in fact on the NHC they still have the floaters, far more zoomed in then that..... what I don't see anymore like you used to is the forecast points on the satellite loop. That's what I was referencing unless I'm just missing it
But very good trends for a hard recurve after Florida could spare most of the south-east minus the coastal counties. Hope it continues on the euro, my model of choice.
HMON strengthens it to a 919 mb hurricane but thankly weakens it to a 940 mb hurricane when it makes landfall.
Should get some good info in the next few hours from this Buoy, winds already gusting up to 40 out of the east
Dr. NO is running
Brent
Member
Jessy89
Member
Don’t trust that weakening. I think the hurricane models put too much emphasis on interacting with FL causing weakening. The HWRF was doing the same thing.
That would be a crazy landfall, 919mb and 147knts. HMON shows pretty much a Andrew redux, but that model has seemed to be off its rocker most of this storm.
HMON goes through southern Florida and reemerges into the Gulf of Mexico.
Brent
Member
pcbjr
Member
Just for the archive, without comment ...
pcbjr
Member
Would be happy to return stuff to Publix ... LOL ...
HEading SW at hr 96
Weaker trough, looks like will miss it and leave Dorian to slow, wait for the ridge to rebuild and head west maybe
it is still moving at a good clip. that trof over the NE is gonna have to really tug quickly for it to not roll into FL
will be interesting to see. That trof is not deep enough (I don't think, as that image shows) to really tug this to miss FL
HWRF has a category 4 hurricane about to make landfall @93 hours.
Brent
Member
I dont even know what the Euro is doing
pcbjr
Member
being a smart arse ...
Brent
Member
Moving toward Miami
HWRF makes landfall as a 941 mb hurricane.
It's crawling, trough starting to dig in the midwest too so could still end up pulling this north..... throwing my hands up
I mean it's the Europeans what do they know about TC's?
Ethan80963!
Member
Euro tracking NW at 126