Henry2326
Member
NHC rolled with their last version at 8:00pm
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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
Henry2326
Member
Time sorts out that mess.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Recon found a 1003.2 extrapolated MSLP & still missed the center. Dorian is definitely stronger than it was earlier today.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Dropsonde near the center of Dorian found a 1005mb MSLP w/ a 17 KT surface wind. For future reference, as a rule of thumb, for every 10 KTS of surface wind, you usually take off a mb of pressure, this suggests that Dorian's actual minimum MSLP is around 1003-1004 hPa right now, confirming earlier extrapolated obs.
No doubt Dorian has intensified today.
No doubt Dorian has intensified today.
Definitely still lots of uncertainty with the 00z run. 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Definitely another significant eastward shift in the short-range
We were talking about it going between the DR and Puerto Rico, now it may go north of Puerto Rico
New video update.
Henry2326
Member
Look at that ridge lifting from one version to the next. Definitely had model inconsistencies regarding the position of the high....timing changed quite a bit with the shift in the center today.
What did the euro end up doing?
Henry2326
Member
There ya go....he doesn't see an OTC solution yet. Does an excellent job of describing the difference in the movement of the ridge between GFS and Euro. You want a layman explanation, take a look....
6z/18z euro only runs out to 90 hours. So no idea where it would end up at, but it's stronger than the previous 12Z run was around same time frame.
NCSNOW
Member
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Dont rule out a blown kiss, not real one, stall then ots. Kiss the coast then off to the fishes. Erin will weaken the hp before it can build back in and turn Dorian toward land. First i want to see how it navigates,survives PR. They have some 3500 foot mtns I beleive, mainly eastern,central part of island. Aint the shredder, but itll prove formidable for a small circulation storm like this one.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Well, it'a even more uncertain now than it was earlier today with the latest runs. Now we have seen it go further north and stronger, which is exactly what I was afraid of. Could even end up out to sea. Some wild swings today.
Snowflowxxl
Member
I would not be surprised if this thing gets really strong, but ends up OTS. Need to defiantly pay attention no matter what.
Jessy89
Member
If this thing goes north of porto rico instead of over it. Then I think it’s headed out to sea. Obviously just a gut opinion.
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Cadi40
Member
Looking to see what the NHC does with the cone.
Jessy89
Member
I would have to think. That the chances of it getting into the gulf has went down significantly
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accu35
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Just wanted to see you say that, lol. Honestly I'm picking