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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Its really about speed. The farther NE it goes initially, the slower the forward progress amd the more time the trough has to erode the ridge.

The ICON's trump card is the much stronger ULL over the gulf.
 
UKMET basically stalls in the NW Bahamas east of S FL does not make landfall through day 6
 
GFS basically just hammers Carolina areas that had problems with Florence with a ton of rain again...ick, good thing it's model cartoons with large shifts going on.
 
Dont worry Your friend Dorian is on the way. OTS
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Cmc is little south from 18z. icon, cmc is determined to head for the gulf. If Euro comes in west again tonight than its gonna be a headache of a model spread
 
Brent said:
UKMET basically stalls in the NW Bahamas east of S FL does not make landfall through day 6
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UKMET likely doing this due to left bias. We’ve seen this a number of times in recent years.
 
GFS likely out to lunch IMO with that pin-wheel effect ends up sending that upper level back north into Florida and eventually the south-east once the cane is gone. Western NC bakes and well as the Virginia Piedmont goes above 103 degrees on the west side of the hurricane where the dry sinking air is. Way too much going on for these models to know. UKMET and CMC also look goofy. For now, I would toss all my eggs with the EURO but even it may struggle with all that is going on.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
GFS likely out to lunch IMO with that pin-wheel effect ends up sending that upper level back north into Florida and eventually the south-east once the cane is gone. Western NC bakes and well as the Virginia Piedmont goes above 103 degrees on the west side of the hurricane where the dry sinking air is. Way too much going on for these models to know. UKMET and CMC also look goofy. For now, I would toss all my eggs with the EURO but even it may struggle with all that is going on.
Click to expand...
I finally have to agree with you on this.
 
Looks like she maybe finally be beginning to Strengthen also.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 4:32Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309
Storm Number & Year: 05 in 2019
Storm Name: Dorian (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 26

A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 3:59:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16.17N 63.22W
B. Center Fix Location: 243 statute miles (392 km) to the SE (129°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,477m (4,846ft) at 850mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1006mb (29.71 inHg) - Extrapolated
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 25kts (28.8mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the SW (228°) of center fix at 3:57:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 309° at 17kts (From the NW at 19.6mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the SW (227°) of center fix at 3:55:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 57kts (65.6mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the NE (38°) of center fix at 4:01:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 147° at 54kts (From the SSE at 62.1mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NE (42°) of center fix at 4:03:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,519m (4,984ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 850mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 54kts (~ 62.1mph) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NE (42°) from the flight level center at 4:03:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb
General Note About Vortex Messages:
- Reported winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (The National Hurricane Center's advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)
 
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Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory 15A:

...DORIAN STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY...

LOCATION:16.3N 63.4W
ABOUT 240 MI ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: NW AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 MB
 
She is beginning to strengthen.

SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 63.4W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
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