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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Jessy89 said:
If this thing goes north of porto rico instead of over it. Then I think it’s headed out to sea. Obviously just a gut opinion.


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i dont expect big changes they will do it gradually if there is a northward trend here 5 day point will likely still be well into Florida
 
025213_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 63.0W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the British Virgin Islands.

The government of the Dominican Republic has changed the Tropical
Storm Warning to a Tropical Storm Watch from Isla Saona to Samana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Puerto Plata

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
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Wonder why weakening and no strengthening toward landfall the models showed otherwise ?
 
Based off early frames, the ICON is fixing to be way north.

Edit: okay I spoke too soon since I didn't see the 18z, carry on.
 
There’s still time for the track and intensity to change. If the more intense northerly trend continues then the cone will adjust to it. Dorian has many variables steering it and contributing to its intensity, lots can change between now and landfall.
 
ICON farther east and stronger this run through 764259BD67-5B3A-4345-B7BD-629F5A913C0A.jpeg
 
Here we go 00Z GFS is running. just a touch further East at hour 12.

FYI Icon is still into the Gulf of Mexico.
Hour 24 does not look like it looses the circulation this run as and after it crosses PR. looks like it's still a touch NE at hour 42. and has the pressure already starting to fall. I would say a good 50 miles NE of 18Z run and has pressure at 999 MB compared to 1007 MB on 18Z.
16 MB lower at hour 60 compared to 18Z.
 
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FWIW, Icon is a little south than 18z so far at south FL landfall, or maybe the same
 
At 48 hours the GFS is a bit NE and a little stronger this run.

I really thought early in the run that the ICON was gonna head OTS by the way. Still ended up heading towards the gulf.
 
Really am starting to think there's a window for OTS with this one based off the upper air pattern. Gonna be too close though since we're not far away from time for the storm.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Really am starting to think there's a window for OTS with this one based off the upper air pattern. Gonna be too close though since we're not far away from time for the storm.
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If it does make landfall it's going to be a SC or NC storm.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Really am starting to think there's a window for OTS with this one based off the upper air pattern. Gonna be too close though since we're not far away from time for the storm.
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its definitely an option now and I didn't even think it was earlier today...

GFS is east again through 114 looks to miss Florida entirely
 
Think this run eventually comes in in the Carolinas but these shifts are crazy. By the time I wake up we might be at that OTS solution.

Edit: wow, I think 0z likely is OTS. Just made the turn at 144.

Edit2: nope, it's coming in, but it was a large step towards steering OTS.
 
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ncskywarn said:
If it does make landfall it's going to be a SC or NC storm.
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So many times over the decades of watching these things have I seen this play out the same way, just about every hurricane I have been in ( have lived in eastern NC for 47 years its not a small number) has done this same slow track up the coast first they are going to get Florida, then Hilton Head, then Charleston, and eventually Myrtle over to Morehead somewhere.....or even OTS

Looks like the convection NE of the center is dominate right now and one would think this would keep Dorian to the eastern side of track and we could even see another center jump if the current center dies off.....
 
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