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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Looks like ICON shows a stall for Dorian over Fl, at least through hr 132. That would be a horrible solution to verify for south Florida.

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Will Rossman said:
Looks like ICON shows a stall for Dorian over Fl, at least through hr 132. That would be a horrible solution to verify for south Florida.

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How reliable is the ICON at this range? I'm really keeping a close eye on this since my aunt lives in south FL.
 
I believe that model is run by the German meteorological service. I'm not sure how much weight one can put on its forecasts. For one thing it's probably best to wait until all the 12z model runs come in to see if the ICON is onto a new trend.

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890
URNT15 KWBC 291540
NOAA2 1305A DORIAN HDOB 35 20190829
153100 2119N 06709W 6960 03162 0017 +120 +049 242059 061 045 005 00
153130 2121N 06709W 6955 03160 0011 +114 +087 237051 055 047 008 00
153200 2124N 06709W 6939 03165 0004 +105 +099 238050 052 044 003 00
153230 2126N 06709W 6984 03099 9979 +120 +073 234051 053 049 001 00
153300 2128N 06710W 6957 03114 9947 +128 +072 237058 060 060 001 00
153330 2130N 06710W 6937 03103 9905 +128 +105 239062 063 062 004 00
153400 2133N 06711W 6967 03035 9857 +140 +105 230037 048 054 003 00
153430 2135N 06711W 6983 03005 9857 +134 +085 178023 024 033 002 00
153500 2137N 06711W 6942 03057 9876 +117 +091 139031 036 041 006 00
153530 2139N 06712W 6956 03062 9892 +121 +091 108046 052 071 024 00
153600 2142N 06712W 6927 03125 9933 +108 //// 105061 068 066 041 05
153630 2144N 06713W 6889 03200 9966 +105 //// 101059 061 071 018 05
153700 2146N 06713W 6983 03103 9990 +106 +105 104059 064 065 010 00
153730 2148N 06713W 6964 03137 0025 +091 //// 101058 061 058 010 01
153800 2150N 06713W 6968 03144 0041 +088 //// 102057 059 051 014 01
153830 2153N 06713W 6961 03159 0046 +091 //// 106057 063 049 013 01
153900 2155N 06713W 6963 03167 0053 +092 //// 107060 061 050 008 01
153930 2157N 06713W 6957 03182 0059 +094 //// 110054 055 050 007 01
154000 2159N 06713W 6948 03198 0071 +089 //// 106046 049 049 008 01
154030 2201N 06713W 6957 03190 0080 +087 +086 100042 043 048 005 00
Latest recon data has the pressure down to 985.7 mb.
 
ICON moves Dorian slowly through Florida and reemerges offshore around the space coast.,
 
12Z GFS aiming for central FL landfall a little south of 6Z and quite a bit south of 0Z
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_17.png
 
Not a good trend for south Florida. ICON and GFS 12z both indicating Dorian slows down considerably as he slowly turns north after landfall.

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While the second (L) feature may not be as pronounced in the Gulf on other modeling as the ICON, the ICON surely isn't backing down from it's Southern look, and it will be interesting to see how well it does. I personally though it would correct North, but...
 
Both ICON and GFS show a very small weakness. It won’t take much to take it much farther west. ICON shows that clearly with its stall.
 
It's gonna change again and again, but this will empty the shelves at every Publix in the State east of Tallahassee ...

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh96-144.gif
 
Say whatever you want but I still think it's going to correct back west. Go look at all the cones in the hurricane archives of similar storm paths or even recent ones. The cones like to go to one extreme then usually come back the other way. I really don't think this is a Carolina landfall threat still. Its going to keep shifting so don't focus on the exact output right now in the long range. Focus on the larger features and their evolution.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Say whatever you want but I still think it's going to correct back west. Go look at all the cones in the hurricane archives of similar storm paths or even recent ones. The cones like to go to one extreme then usually come back the other way. I really don't think this is a Carolina landfall threat still. Its going to keep shifting so don't focus on the exact output right now in the long range. Focus on the larger features and their evolution.
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You and I apparently have the same song book!
 
ForsythSnow said:
Say whatever you want but I still think it's going to correct back west. Go look at all the cones in the hurricane archives of similar storm paths or even recent ones. The cones like to go to one extreme then usually come back the other way. I really don't think this is a Carolina landfall threat still. Its going to keep shifting so don't focus on the exact output right now in the long range. Focus on the larger features and their evolution.
Click to expand...
I'm gonna agree with you on this with just one caveat, it's still gaining latitude and continues to be on the eastern edge of guidance.... it may turn hard left and make up for lost ground but the more latitude it gains the longer it takes to arrive at the EC and the better the chances of a stall just offshore. Of course IF that happened way too early to know what it would do after that. As remote a possibility it is I'm still giving @Rain Cold call a slight chance of happening.
 
The GFS scenario is bad for everyone from FL to NC. Goes into FL and then curves NE after going inland and rides up the coastline as a hurricane before going out to sea after NC. I think this could very well happen.
 
Overall I think the trends have been great overnight if it keeps trending east this may end only being a coastal scraper/Florida trouble up to the OBX. With little to no rain for big cities like Atlanta, Charlotte and Raleigh. This wouldn’t be a bad outcome maybe it can continue east and only be a coastal county ordeal With the exception of Florida likely seeing more widespread rains and wind.
 
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