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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Remember the euro last year over played the ridge on Florence and took her ssw along the coast when the fv5 was spot on.


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so it dives WSW into the Northern Miami area and then turns NW up the Peninsula on the Euro, we've seen this in other runs

Ugly ugly run but probably no Gulf at least

the 1926 Miami hurricane would today be the costliest hurricane ever
 
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WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE 06Z RUN IN THE AM. RIGHT NOW YOU CAROLINA PEOPLES GET SOME JUICE
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Just like the 0Z Euro, the 0Z EPS remains a significant threat to the southern half of FL but many more members then turn up/near the peninsula or never even make it to FL vs the 12Z. Many fewer into the Gulf. Significantly higher threat even up into Carolinas vs 12Z run indicated. This more northward/less westward trend seems to be what 0Z consensus is saying.
 
GaWx said:
Just like the 0Z Euro, the 0Z EPS remains a significant threat to the southern half of FL but many more members then turn up/near the peninsula or never even make it to FL vs the 12Z. Many fewer into the Gulf. Significantly higher threat even up into Carolinas vs 12Z run indicated. This more northward/less westward trend seems to be what 0Z consensus is saying.
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Very interesting

I'm gonna withhold judgement til morning in case they switch back(no joke I've seen that before) but i wonder if this could trend back towards OTS if this alleged sharp turn happens sooner

The longer it takes to get to Florida the more likely it turns north clearly

AL05_2019082900_ECENS.png
 
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GaWx said:
Just like the 0Z Euro, the 0Z EPS remains a significant threat to the southern half of FL but many more members then turn up/near the peninsula or never even make it to FL vs the 12Z. Many fewer into the Gulf. Significantly higher threat even up into Carolinas vs 12Z run indicated. This more northward/less westward trend seems to be what 0Z consensus is saying.
Click to expand...

I agree the trend the last few runs have seemed to shift from across Florida into the GOM to a more "traditional" Florida/SE threat. Living in eastern NC this is what we watch for, the inevitable march up the coast of landfall points.....not that I am saying that will happen here only that most of our hits were suppose to hit Florida before they were suppose to hit Hilton Head, then Charleston before finally hitting NC.....it would only take that last Euro track shifting 75-100 miles east to really change things up for the Carolinas.....

Earlier I was kind of letting myself buy into the Florida into GOM scenario and wanted to write this one off but now after that Euro run I am sucked back in.....verbatim the Euro brings the center right over MBY still at 993mb though at that point its been onshore 4 days.
 
Still struggling with dry air.

25196bb4dcfcfd2072e6de1ab70a1916.gif



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GaWx said:
Just like the 0Z Euro, the 0Z EPS remains a significant threat to the southern half of FL but many more members then turn up/near the peninsula or never even make it to FL vs the 12Z. Many fewer into the Gulf. Significantly higher threat even up into Carolinas vs 12Z run indicated. This more northward/less westward trend seems to be what 0Z consensus is saying.
Click to expand...
I agree. There is still a 345 mile difference in the landfall. Just because NHC wants to "split the baby" doesn't mean its necessarily right. At this point the only thing they have in common near land is a curve north. I haven't bought in to GFS solution as Jax...it would make history for sure, but its tough to eye the needle at that corner. More likely it bounces off to Carolina with a weakness in the ridge.
Legacy has continued to produce a coast rider, over and over again. A jolt to the east and the eye stays off shore which would be devastating with the possible intensity this storm can generate.. landfall of all three is midnight Tuesday. Maybe by Sunday we have a better idea.
 
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Just a note, although the Euro turns up FL on this run, it is actually closer to going much farther west. Troughing over the NE is much weaker and ridging over the top and stronger and that western ridge center is farther east. Dorian is slower still and is getting very close to stalling and getting caught under the western ridge and going to see Brent. Haha.

It really looks like this,

Faster= FL into GOM into northern gulf coast
Slow= FL hit, stall into GA
Slower= FL hit, stall, west into GOM, possible west gulf coast hit.
 
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Looks like we got some good agreement on a recurve after the FL landfall. There’s a shortwave that’s on most of the models that causes a weakness for the storm to slide through to the ne.


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I’ve been out of the loop for a bit! Quick update? Is this going to bring W Carolinas any rain?
 
metwannabe said:
Back and forth we go



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Yep....
06z Legacy is a full blown coast rider....and has been leaning to that solution for 48 hours, maybe longer. frankly I think the convergence will be toward this solution in the end. Holy cow, what a ride that will be....multiple possible landfall.
 
Still sticking to my Floyd Track hunch from yesterday morning. Also nothing pretty about a major Hurricane hit. But for Miami, if you have to have one, better served getting it from the NE direction as opposed to SE direction.

Still think this thing puts on brakes right at the NE Florida Coast and stalls, crawls up the coast cutting across coastal plain of SC /NC on way ots.

I do think it gets a little closer to Florida Coast before stalling, We'll see

1567078194764.png
 
Will be interesting to see if Dorian can strengthen today. Still plenty of questions on timing as always.
 
NCSNOW said:
Still sticking to my Floyd Track hunch from yesterday morning. Also nothing pretty about a major Hurricane hit. But for Miami, if you have to have one, better served getting it from the NE direction as opposed to SE direction.

Still think this thing puts on brakes right at the NE Florida Coast and stalls, crawls up the coast cutting across coastal plain of SC /NC on way ots.

I do think it gets a little closer to Florida Coast before stalling, We'll see

View attachment 22289
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In the last few years, it seems storms on this track, end up correcting left, more than not,
 
Taking a look at things this morning, I think when you take in all the model runs, there is one thing that has remained constant more than anything else, and that is a major hurricane hitting Florida. Yes, there have been some minor changes here and there, and there is time for more changes. But at this moment I believe that is the best forecast to go with.
 
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Still looks to be tracking on the eastern most edge of the NHC cone and looking at water vapor plus below, sure think it gains more latitude than projected before it turns west..... I could see this actually stalling off the coast before it resumes it's next motion (west or north or ots)

1567079834485.png
 
Ethan80963 said:
HWRF farther north and weaker at hr 93View attachment 22291
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“Weaker” haha still a cat 4 or 5 monster ... I don’t think we should consider a jump from 914 to 930 as “weaker” this is going to intensify to a very strong storm no matter what the small number ends up being
 
NCSNOW said:
Still sticking to my Floyd Track hunch from yesterday morning. Also nothing pretty about a major Hurricane hit. But for Miami, if you have to have one, better served getting it from the NE direction as opposed to SE direction.

Still think this thing puts on brakes right at the NE Florida Coast and stalls, crawls up the coast cutting across coastal plain of SC /NC on way ots.

I do think it gets a little closer to Florida Coast before stalling, We'll see

View attachment 22289
Click to expand...


Yep....did you see the CMC put on the brakes and hit a wall?!?!? I think we are converging to a coast rider that could have even more issues than one landfall.
 
Henry2326 said:
Yep....did you see the CMC put on the brakes and hit a wall?!?!? I think we are converging to a coast rider that could have even more issues than one landfall.
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One thing I know is when the models start slowing storms down there is usually a change to track guidance as well. We saw that with florence last year.
 
032
URNT15 KWBC 291310
NOAA2 1305A DORIAN HDOB 20 20190829
130100 2059N 06704W 6948 03154 9997 +112 +077 273038 039 039 002 00
130130 2101N 06702W 6953 03132 9975 +117 +077 275041 044 042 001 00
130200 2103N 06701W 6938 03126 9947 +117 +076 283047 049 049 003 00
130230 2105N 06700W 6947 03086 9897 +126 +107 279041 047 050 006 00
130300 2107N 06659W 6965 03048 9881 +126 +111 226011 014 033 007 00
130330 2109N 06658W 6978 03032 9868 +143 +089 142016 019 029 009 03
130400 2111N 06659W 6984 03033 9869 +151 +067 118024 026 027 000 03
130430 2113N 06658W 6980 03042 9879 +144 +092 122036 048 070 008 00
130500 2114N 06656W 6985 03058 9925 +122 +119 129061 064 066 017 03
130530 2116N 06655W 7020 03042 9950 +127 +106 129061 063 062 014 00
130600 2117N 06653W 6995 03087 9977 +119 +093 138055 056 060 006 00
130630 2118N 06652W 6970 03129 0008 +105 +085 142056 057 057 002 00
130700 2120N 06650W 6954 03159 0029 +096 +087 147054 055 055 002 00
130730 2121N 06648W 6953 03168 0038 +095 //// 147052 054 052 003 01
130800 2123N 06647W 6958 03167 0044 +097 +094 151048 049 048 002 00
130830 2125N 06645W 6967 03166 0053 +099 +079 149048 049 046 001 00
130900 2126N 06644W 6966 03173 0061 +096 +087 151051 052 041 001 00
130930 2128N 06642W 6963 03179 0082 +085 +076 146046 047 038 002 00
131000 2129N 06640W 6960 03185 0084 +085 +073 149047 049 037 002 00
131030 2131N 06639W 6957 03191 0089 +083 +076 149050 051 037 003 00
Recon data shows the pressure back down to 986.8 mb but the winds have slightly gone down to 70 knots.
 
Snowfan said:
032
URNT15 KWBC 291310
NOAA2 1305A DORIAN HDOB 20 20190829
130100 2059N 06704W 6948 03154 9997 +112 +077 273038 039 039 002 00
130130 2101N 06702W 6953 03132 9975 +117 +077 275041 044 042 001 00
130200 2103N 06701W 6938 03126 9947 +117 +076 283047 049 049 003 00
130230 2105N 06700W 6947 03086 9897 +126 +107 279041 047 050 006 00
130300 2107N 06659W 6965 03048 9881 +126 +111 226011 014 033 007 00
130330 2109N 06658W 6978 03032 9868 +143 +089 142016 019 029 009 03
130400 2111N 06659W 6984 03033 9869 +151 +067 118024 026 027 000 03
130430 2113N 06658W 6980 03042 9879 +144 +092 122036 048 070 008 00
130500 2114N 06656W 6985 03058 9925 +122 +119 129061 064 066 017 03
130530 2116N 06655W 7020 03042 9950 +127 +106 129061 063 062 014 00
130600 2117N 06653W 6995 03087 9977 +119 +093 138055 056 060 006 00
130630 2118N 06652W 6970 03129 0008 +105 +085 142056 057 057 002 00
130700 2120N 06650W 6954 03159 0029 +096 +087 147054 055 055 002 00
130730 2121N 06648W 6953 03168 0038 +095 //// 147052 054 052 003 01
130800 2123N 06647W 6958 03167 0044 +097 +094 151048 049 048 002 00
130830 2125N 06645W 6967 03166 0053 +099 +079 149048 049 046 001 00
130900 2126N 06644W 6966 03173 0061 +096 +087 151051 052 041 001 00
130930 2128N 06642W 6963 03179 0082 +085 +076 146046 047 038 002 00
131000 2129N 06640W 6960 03185 0084 +085 +073 149047 049 037 002 00
131030 2131N 06639W 6957 03191 0089 +083 +076 149050 051 037 003 00
Recon data shows the pressure back down to 986.8 mb but the winds have slightly gone down to 70 knots.
Click to expand...
You can see it fighting dry air right now on IR
 
968
URNT15 KWBC 291320
NOAA2 1305A DORIAN HDOB 21 20190829
131100 2132N 06637W 6962 03190 0092 +083 +080 151047 047 039 003 00
131130 2133N 06635W 6968 03185 0101 +079 //// 150045 045 038 018 01
131200 2135N 06633W 6961 03194 0097 +083 //// 152047 050 077 008 05
131230 2136N 06632W 6957 03199 0089 +089 //// 147044 048 050 052 05
131300 2137N 06630W 6950 03215 0098 +086 //// 142049 052 046 038 05
131330 2139N 06628W 6963 03202 0101 +088 +078 138048 049 041 009 00
131400 2140N 06627W 6964 03204 0108 +085 +082 140047 049 041 009 00
131430 2142N 06625W 6954 03218 0111 +083 //// 141052 054 041 015 01
131500 2143N 06623W 6938 03236 0108 +085 //// 138041 051 043 021 05
131530 2144N 06622W 6905 03269 0097 +084 //// 143048 058 044 020 01
131600 2146N 06620W 6904 03273 0101 +081 //// 133043 045 043 010 01
131630 2147N 06618W 6923 03254 0107 +081 //// 131049 051 042 006 01
131700 2148N 06617W 6938 03236 0123 +075 //// 121047 048 040 005 01
131730 2150N 06615W 6957 03218 0117 +086 +069 124048 048 041 002 00
131800 2151N 06614W 6963 03214 0116 +089 +066 127045 046 040 002 00
131830 2152N 06612W 6963 03216 0116 +092 +062 129042 045 039 000 00
131900 2154N 06611W 6959 03223 0116 +093 +058 129040 041 037 002 00
131930 2155N 06609W 6958 03224 0114 +096 +055 132039 040 038 002 00
132000 2157N 06607W 6962 03222 0123 +090 +058 126034 036 036 003 00
132030 2158N 06606W 6957 03231 0125 +090 +059 125032 033 035 005 00
Actually the winds are a bit stronger. Up to 77 knots SFMR.
 
To be honest, I think this is starting to look very healthy. (not that it really wasn't before) I Am talking more symmetric. Looks more expansive with the CDO and as it works out more Dry air, then its probably off to the races.
 
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