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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

lol the legacy has one spot in the Atlantic with 44 inches of rain through 192
 
Sleet City USA said:
Its the first run we've seen real impacts in the Carolinas... and its a week out if it does go that way... loooooong way to go
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Actually 5-1/2 days to landfall...in this one scenario. I've heard of tweaking a model, but "wth" did they do to it in 6 hours?!?!?
I was spouting off about the models having the high wrong. But I meant 50 miles or so...not over 200 miles!!
 
GFS Legacy strengths have routinely been 30-50 mb too strong for several years. For example, it had early runs of Irma down to a ridiculous 900 or so mb just off SC/NC and in the 880s to 890s coming into S FL. I'd feel comfortable adding at least 30 mb to any extreme GFS Legacy prog. that is out on its own amongst dynamic models for something more reasonable. But even after adding 30 mb, the 18Z would still be really bad, a major in the 950s. Unfortunately, a 950s major would not be an unrealistic worst case scenario due to very low shear/upper air, very warm SSTs, and very moist dewpoints though hopefully it wouldn't be that bad.
 
Henry2326 said:
Actually 5-1/2 days to landfall...in this one scenario. I've heard of tweaking a model, but "wth" did they do to it in 6 hours?!?!?
I was spouting off about the models having the high wrong. But I meant 50 miles or so...not over 200 miles!!
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That's what happens when the center reforms something like 75 or 100 miles to the North of the old center like it did this morning/early afternoon. As someone pointed out it's only 1 model run lets see what happen with subsequent runs.
 
What makes these runs different tho is that they caught on with that northern jump to the storm today
 
GaWx said:
GFS legacy strengths have routinely been 30-50 mb too strong for several years. For example, it had early runs of Irma down to a ridiculous 900 or so mb just off SC/NC and in the 880s to 890s coming into S FL. I'd feel comfortable add at least 30 mb to any extreme GFS Legacy prog. that is out on its own amongst dynamic models for something more reasonable. But even after adding 30 mb, the 18Z would still be really bad, a major in the 950s. Unfortunately, a 950s major would not be an unrealistic worst case scenario due to very low shear, very warm SSTs, and very moist dewpoints though hopefully it wouldn't be that bad.
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18Z; one run ... let's see what NHC puts together tonight and then worry ... :eek:
 
When averaging the euro op vs the gfs op it places the entire south-east in the pay attention mode. Very unclear with more changes CERTAIN given the large spread. However, NHC never dramatically alters their forecast in the extended its usually just small nudges with every package. I don’t expect major changes tonight.
 
Sleet City USA said:
Cone change coming with the 8pm advisory you think?
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Yes at 11:00.
Look at the run archive ... I've posted it above someplace but you can find it in Wiki>Tropical>Models ... the cone has pretty much drifted north, albeit slowly, over time ... the cone is not static ... so yes it will change ... how much, we'll see ...
 
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I mean these new runs are incredible. I guess the redevelopment of the center really made a difference


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Sleet City USA said:
Cone change coming with the 8pm advisory you think?
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Seriously doubt it not after only one model run. Especially after last year it took several model runs before they changed Florence's track cone. They are not going to jump based on one run.
 
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BirdManDoomW said:
It’s good tho that out to sea is becoming slightly better chance. Just need more north north trends.
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I wouldnt normally get caught up in one run but there were ensemble members ots on the eps and ukmet too which is more making me wonder

Now it could just be a fluke but we'll have to see if the center reformation really did that much its possible anyway
 
Brent said:
I wouldnt normally get caught up in one run but there were ensemble members ots on the eps and ukmet too which is more making me wonder

Now it could just be a fluke but we'll have to see if the center reformation really did that much its possible anyway
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That little thing is little ... models are going to have a hard time dealing with it ... Charlie?
 
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