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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

GFS coming up east of Atlanta Georgia so far. Deform band sets up across the mountains. Wow.
 
I would toss this silly run. Huge flood and major inland impact. Unlikely IMO and too far out.
 
With a blend with all the models, I can easily see south/central Florida landfall. It still has a pretty decent chance of crossing over into the gulf, and how far west it goes before the turn will be the big question when that time gets here
 
accu35 said:
With a blend with all the models, I can easily see south/central Florida landfall. It still has a pretty decent chance of crossing over into the gulf, and how far west it goes before the turn will be the big question when that time gets here
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I know what your saying, but not one model had it in the gulf tonight so far lol
 
Since were on the "north/south" here, CMC is little south at landfall
 
0z CMC 126 is 400 miles ESE of the 12Z 138. Just a slight change. Instead of going into the Gulf, it stalls and then turns up the peninsula.
 
WOW the CMC rakes the central Florida East coast barely moving for 30 hours before finally moving inland.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
If you can tell sir it’s feeling the weakness off trough as it approaches landfall and slow down.
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I do understand that sir, I was talking about at "Landfall", i was not saying anything about feeling the weakness of the trough. I do understand what's going on here and I do understand and aware that this storm will ride the east coast and take a visit in your back yard
 
0Z GEFS: most members holds onto a move through FL into the Gulf before turning north. Way different than the operational. Keep in mind that the operational is the FV3 whereas the GEFS is based on an older version. That sometimes may explain when there is a big discrepancy. Remember that the FV3 has a significant SE troughing bias, which may explain why its 0Z run is so far N.
 
GaWx said:
0Z GEFS: most members holds onto a move through FL into the Gulf before turning north. Way different than the operational. Keep in mind that the operational is the FV3 whereas the GEFS is based on an older version. That sometimes may explain when there is a big discrepancy. Remember that the FV3 has a significant SE troughing bias, which may explain why its 0Z run is so far N.
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Your are talking 0z gefs right? My is only 17% loaded right now. Yours is fast
 
GaWx said:
0Z GEFS: most members holds onto a move through FL into the Gulf before turning north. Way different than the operational. Keep in mind that the operational is the FV3 whereas the GEFS is based on an older version. That sometimes may explain when there is a big discrepancy. Remember that the FV3 has a significant SE troughing bias, which may explain why its 0Z run is so far N.
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Most then recurve into AL/W FL Pan/GA and then mainly eastern Carolinas.
 
HWRF is about 20 mb weaker so far. 20 minutes til the Euro starts

26 mb weaker at hour 81 also looks to be a tad south going against most of the 0z runs so far

hwrf_satIR_05L_13.png
 
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00z HMON continuing to be inconsistent from run to run smh. It's similar to 00z Canadian, slowly crawling NNW up through FL. Meanwhile, 00z HWRF is still going balls to the wall crazy on the wind intensity, 171.2 kts Sunday afternoon as Dorian approaches FL. That's just south of 200mph, no big deal.:oops:
hwrf_mslp_uv850_05L_32.png
 
Weatherlover92 said:
00z HMON continuing to be inconsistent from run to run smh. It's similar to 00z Canadian, slowly crawling NNW up through FL. Meanwhile, 00z HWRF is still going balls to the wall crazy on the wind intensity, 171.2 kts Sunday afternoon as Dorian approaches FL. That's just south of 200mph, no big deal.:oops:
hwrf_mslp_uv850_05L_32.png
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Thats at 850 mb(aloft) just to be fair but its still no joke
 
0Z Euro hits SE FL. but now is stalling and looking like it may move up the peninsula similar to the CMC
 
Just barely north of Miami probably a Cat 4. This would be a complete nightmare, very very expensive real estate and lots of people

Way slower over a day later for landfall this runecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_6 (5).png
 
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