• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Henry2326 said:
Where is landfall?
Click to expand...
There's no landfall.
hwrf_ref_05L_42.png
 
Weather Channel isn’t bad they just don’t speak in absolutes in the long range. Sort of like the NHC cone showing GOM, Florida and out to sea all on the table.
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 62.7W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the
Hurricane Watch from Isla Saona to Samana, and discontinued the
Tropical Storm Watch from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Samana to Puerto Plata

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
Click to expand...
 
HWRF looks like it was about to make Dorian go thru a EWRC at the end of the run, eyewall had that look and wind field was beginning to spread out
 
18z GFS is running about 2 days ahead of legacy, but only 6 hours ahead of HWRF.

Also approaching Jax, the three are:
GFS 970
HWRF. 941
LEGACY 923
HWRF might be our middle zone....that's scary.
 
The way the center has jumped north several times today kind of reminds me of Irene when she was in the same location she was first suppose to hit extreme SW DR and Haiti and ended up going across PR and into the Bahamas.....the center relocated several times further north in the Antilles similar to what Dorian has done today...
 
Downeastnc said:
The way the center has jumped north several times today kind of reminds me of Irene when she was in the same location she was first suppose to hit extreme SW DR and Haiti and ended up going across PR and into the Bahamas.....the center relocated several times further north in the Antilles similar to what Dorian has done today...
Click to expand...
If only we could get that curve....I don't think that's in our future, but can hope.
 
Dropsonde near the center of Dorian found a 1005mb MSLP w/ a 17 KT surface wind. For future reference, as a rule of thumb, for every 10 KTS of surface wind, you usually take off a mb of pressure, this suggests that Dorian's actual minimum MSLP is around 1003-1004 hPa right now, confirming earlier extrapolated obs.

No doubt Dorian has intensified today.

recon_AF309-0805A-DORIAN_dropsonde2_20190827-2342.png
 
Dont rule out a blown kiss, not real one, stall then ots. Kiss the coast then off to the fishes. Erin will weaken the hp before it can build back in and turn Dorian toward land. First i want to see how it navigates,survives PR. They have some 3500 foot mtns I beleive, mainly eastern,central part of island. Aint the shredder, but itll prove formidable for a small circulation storm like this one.
 
Well, it'a even more uncertain now than it was earlier today with the latest runs. Now we have seen it go further north and stronger, which is exactly what I was afraid of. Could even end up out to sea. Some wild swings today.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top