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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

SD said:
Stout winds on the nam late tomorrow evening
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Considering those are sustained winds and in knts yeah its a little breezy....3k NAM even more ridiculous but its also got the pressure stupid low ( though is 945 really that stupid given the pressure falls we are seeing now )
 
metwannabe said:
And at the same time this is the hopefully ridiculous wind gust it's showing....

View attachment 23178
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Hopefully rediculous I agree, but a good one to bookmark to test model wind prediction performance if the storm actually finds itself near that position. The Nam has certainly earned respect for it's detailed temps at times.
 
Thor said:
Hopefully rediculous I agree, but a good one to bookmark to test model wind prediction performance if the storm actually finds itself near that position. The Nam has certainly earned respect for it's detailed temps at times.
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It gets worse but I'm not buying this at all, would be major issues if that verified....

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metwannabe said:
It gets worse but I'm not buying this at all, would be major issues if that verified....

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I kinda feel like the NAM overdoes everything except the warm nose in winter storms. It gets you thinking you have a shot at big rain or wind or snow, and then you get a run of the mill event. It was showing a nice inland track for several runs in a row, and now it's gradually correcting back east. If this thing misses even the outer banks, I would not be surprised. Troughs usually win against ridges.
 
metwannabe said:


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Yeah but pressure doesnt always mean stronger storm, though in this storms case it is living up to its pressure....people forget the pressure Irene was when she hit as a 85 mph Cat 1....

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT IRENE MADE LANDFALL AROUND 1130 UTC JUST WEST OF CAPE
LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY AT LANDFALL WAS
75 KT. THIS WAS BASED ON A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 98 KT AND A
SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 69 KT. A DROPSONDE RELEASED BY A NOAA
AIRCRAFT MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 951 MB AROUND THE TIME
OF LANDFALL.

Then several hrs AFTER landfall

THE CENTER OF IRENE HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE INNER CORE
ACTUALLY IMPROVED FOR A FEW HOURS. SINCE THAT TIME...THE RAGGED
EYE HAS FILLED IN BUT THE CENTER REMAINS WELL DEFINED ON
RADAR...WHICH WARRANTS A RETURN TO TWO-HOURLY INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORIES. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 85-90 KT TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND A VERY RECENT CENTER DROP
MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 950 MB
 
Downeastnc said:
Yeah but pressure doesnt always mean stronger storm, though in this storms case it is living up to its pressure....people forget the pressure Irene was when she hit as a 85 mph Cat 1....
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Florence last year 90 mph/958 mb too at landfall

but that's crazy NC hasn't had a major landfall in over 20 years
 
Downeastnc said:
Yeah but pressure doesnt always mean stronger storm, though in this storms case it is living up to its pressure....people forget the pressure Irene was when she hit as a 85 mph Cat 1....

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT IRENE MADE LANDFALL AROUND 1130 UTC JUST WEST OF CAPE
LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY AT LANDFALL WAS
75 KT. THIS WAS BASED ON A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 98 KT AND A
SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 69 KT. A DROPSONDE RELEASED BY A NOAA
AIRCRAFT MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 951 MB AROUND THE TIME
OF LANDFALL.

Then several hrs AFTER landfall

THE CENTER OF IRENE HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE INNER CORE
ACTUALLY IMPROVED FOR A FEW HOURS. SINCE THAT TIME...THE RAGGED
EYE HAS FILLED IN BUT THE CENTER REMAINS WELL DEFINED ON
RADAR...WHICH WARRANTS A RETURN TO TWO-HOURLY INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORIES. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 85-90 KT TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND A VERY RECENT CENTER DROP
MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 950 MB
Click to expand...
I was really just sharing that as a reminder that Fran was the last major landfalling hurricane in NC
 
officially a major again and over the Outer Banks at 36 hours

SoutheastRidge said:
I was just looking up Hurricane Floyd and didnt realize how many similarities it had to Dorian. Floyd peaked while over the Bahamas and was supposed to hit FL but instead paralelled the southeast coast.
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yup except 20 years ago there was a lot more evacuations because the models weren't as great, NHC tracks back then only went out 3 days and still had a FL hit
 
Rain Cold said:
I kinda feel like the NAM overdoes everything except the warm nose in winter storms. It gets you thinking you have a shot at big rain or wind or snow, and then you get a run of the mill event. It was showing a nice inland track for several runs in a row, and now it's gradually correcting back east. If this thing misses even the outer banks, I would not be surprised. Troughs usually win against ridges.
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We will see if that's true this winter RainCold with your last sentence.
 
NHC actually a touch west, taking it right over Bald Head Island, Cape Lookout and up the eastern Pamlico Sound and across the OBX....
 
Really wish they'd make a 2nd track map that had a fixed few of the E US so that you didn't have to squint to see which pixels of your computer are in the cone while the southern half of the arctic ocean is in the cone as well
 
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