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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Am I reading too much into this? Theybare saying Dorian should stay on current course until "a day or so" then he accelerates NE......in a day or so they have him east of NC soooooo? Does this give credence to the models that ran up the inner banks for so many runs in a row? Or am I just reading too much into their wording?

The hurricane is
currently moving through a break in the subtropical ridge. Within
a day or so, the cyclone should turn northeastward with increasing
forward speed in response to a broad mid-tropospheric trough to the
north.
 
well the next 6-8 hrs will be rough around Charleston, then we shall see how far NW into NC Dorian gets, starting to look like a clean miss with the center is impossible, huge eye plus track at best right off the coast means almost all of the NE SC and NC coast will either be in the center or inner core.....
 
Downeastnc said:
well the next 6-8 hrs will be rough around Charleston, then we shall see how far NW into NC Dorian gets, starting to look like a clean miss with the center is impossible, huge eye plus track at best right off the coast means almost all of the NE SC and NC coast will either be in the center or inner core.....
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Yeah and fwiw this late in the game the Euro shifted back west along the NC coast last night and just glancing this morning looks like all modeling has it making LF somewhere on the coast

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At this point none of the major models track the center off the NC coast, the farthest east is the GFS with a track from Lookout to Hatteras everything else is left of that with the 3k being the furthest inland just inshore of the IBX,
 
Downeastnc said:
At this point none of the major models track the center off the NC coast, the farthest east is the GFS with a track from Lookout to Hatteras everything else is left of that with the 3k being the furthest inland just inshore of the IBX,
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Barring a hard right turn and considering all models are showing the strong wind profile on the west side, looking like the potential at the very least of widespread power outages especially 95 east
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah and fwiw this late in the game the Euro shifted back west along the NC coast last night and just glancing this morning looks like all modeling has it making LF somewhere on the coast

Is the 18Z Euro out yet? Thought really at this point we are pretty much now casting.
Click to expand...
 
metwannabe said:
Barring a hard right turn and considering all models are showing the strong wind profile on the west side, looking like the potential at the very least of widespread power outages especially 95 east
Click to expand...

Yep no doubt millions will be without power in the Carolina's by midday Friday....
 
Over 100k already without power. Transformers been lightning up the sky all night. Cell service spotty. Winds have been as high as 60mph near Summerville. Charleston NWS has had a peak gust so far of 68mph (20 miles inland) in North Charleston. Long day ahead
 
When should conditions in the Triangle start to worsen, if they do? Or is it hard to know depending on the track?
 
Looks like it has turned earlier than any of even the 6Z models were predicting. Still may get to the coast but I think this early turn gives it a shot to miss even OBX if it does not wobble back to the left.
 
Considering SC already has a 100k people without power an NC already feeling it, there's obviously no way to avoid serious impact from Dorian at this time period. With that said I still think there's a window of opportunity for it to stay out to sea and never make landfall. If you look at water vapor imagery you can see that kicker dropping down through the plains, will be interesting today to see how he responds to that, will it be a tug north or straight kick out NE?

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Nomanslandva said:
Looks like it has turned earlier than any of even the 6Z models were predicting. Still may get to the coast but I think this early turn gives it a shot to miss even OBX if it does not wobble back to the left.
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Agree

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Already one tornado watch out and looks like another one coming.

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