Stormsfury
Member
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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
Noon NHC official position was 30.0N, 79.7W.
Here are NHC positions over the last 6 hour interval:
6 AM: 29.2N, 79.5W
7 AM: 29.4N, 79.5W
8 AM: 29.5N, 79.6W
9 AM: 29.6N, 79.6W
10 AM: 29.7N, 79.6W
11 AM: 29.8 N, 79.7W
Noon: 30.0N, 79.7W
Will it make it to 80.0W? Any guesses?
Here are NHC positions over the last 6 hour interval:
6 AM: 29.2N, 79.5W
7 AM: 29.4N, 79.5W
8 AM: 29.5N, 79.6W
9 AM: 29.6N, 79.6W
10 AM: 29.7N, 79.6W
11 AM: 29.8 N, 79.7W
Noon: 30.0N, 79.7W
Will it make it to 80.0W? Any guesses?
Downeastnc
Member
10-20 mile changes in track are noise at 48 hrs.....the GFS has been right on or offshore for a day now, the ICON ran east but it did that last night and came back west at 06Z.....there is still obviously a chance this thing trends east and misses everyone but the OBX or even them.....the same can be said for the more inland 3kNAM like track......anyone thinking these little changes run to run mean any given area is in the clear ( well SC/NCwise ) is foolish.....
Very difficult to tell with IR sat image but almost looks like a slight NW wobble, I'll bite.... I say it makes it to 80W
Agreed
Shaggy
Member
Each update of my tropical storm watch inched up winds. Now that it is a tropical storm warning they are saying winds 40-50 with gust as high as 65....that's the highest yet.
This is a considerable jump up on the NHC's noon rainfall forecast
Henry2326
Member
I guess yes
Forget the wobbles this thing is trying to wrap deep convection all the away around (looking more symmetrical), one last gasp before shear becomes a problem...
Henry2326
Member
Skirts as in eye on the coastline? Like HWRF?
Henry2326
Member
Not surprised....it's done this over and over again....timing is of the essence
Henry2326
Member
Tell that to the local media and public....they've been lulled into a false sense of security....
Henry2326
Member
I thought that's what you meant.....its lock step with HWRF and HMON...
Stormsfury
Member
Last fix due north of previous fix. Pressure down 1mb to 963.
Henry2326
Member
12z HMON approach to Charleston and coastline landfall....came a bit east from last run. Locked in with 06z HWRF....and so far 12z.....landfall Charleston. Waiting on a couple more frames.
HIGH TIDE AT 2:00 PM.... NOT GOOD
HIGH TIDE AT 2:00 PM.... NOT GOOD
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Henry2326
Member
12z HMON has it at 956 in approach to Charleston....lowest point further out is 951....
Henry2326
Member
12z HWRF....it so lock step with HMON that I looked back to see if I was originally on the right model. HWRF lowest intensity is 959 and is that on approach....and is slightly later....closer to HIGH TIDE.
