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Brick Tamland
Guest
Should we give more weight to the short range models now?
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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
Bryce Shelton
Member
Long range models not gonna handle the storm too good right now, as it approaches the Carolinas.
Bryce Shelton
Member
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
That is what I was wondering. Short range models look like SC and NC are still in the cross-hairs.
It isn't that dramatic a shift, but it is SE of its recent runs and has no full actual landfall in the Carolinas per my provider's maps. I wonder if it is adjusting to the actual 12Z position.
I'd give more weight to what I'm seeing on satellite, radar and recon pos points..... seriously this isn't intended to sound sarcastic. We just have to watch those points and watch for trends in movement
Right... these shifts, I would say, are small relatively speaking just huge from a localized impact standpoint.
Even with the eastward wobbles that is getting very close to 80W, only take a wobble or two back NW to get it there....
Great trends may have been foolishly to include Raleigh in a Warning now
Again some very deep convection firing on the SW side, don't be surprised to see a slight pull/tug/wobble NW due to that in the short term...
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Foolish to say that so soon.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Saw this on the Facebook page for my son's school. 
For information about whether schools will be closed or delayed due to the hurricane, please watch the news, check our website or follow WCPSS on Twitter. They will have the word out before the school is even notified. Our phone lines are being jammed with calls and we don't have an answer.
For information about whether schools will be closed or delayed due to the hurricane, please watch the news, check our website or follow WCPSS on Twitter. They will have the word out before the school is even notified. Our phone lines are being jammed with calls and we don't have an answer.
I swear it looks like Dorian is trying to tighten up that eye a little bit
Freaking battle of the ridges right there....
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Brick Tamland
Guest
I don't see it going by without making landfall somewhere in NC, or at least skirting the coast. Euro might have went east now, but it and all the models were also going farther west with each run yesterday. And the short range models are showing it getting to NC, too.
Stormsfury
Member
If I was to take a guess right now before RECON gets the next eye penetration. I would say Dorian is around 30.2N, 79.8W
We shall see, I tend to agree but I could also see it just skirting by.... gonna be real close either way. Plus the exact point may be a moot point if it maintains it's strength and has that expanding wind field.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
It's actually pretty much due north of the last plot now as the data is in. It's closer to 29.95 N, 79.65 W. Last drop had it rounded to 29.9N and 79.6 W.