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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

Satellite imagery indicates that the cloud tops in the eyewall of
Dorian have cooled significantly during the past few hours, with the
eye becoming better defined in NOAA Doppler radar data. However,
just-received reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft show that the hurricane has changed little in intensity,
with maximum winds remaining near 90 kt and the central pressure
near 964 mb. The aircraft data show that hurricane-force winds are
roughly 50 n mi offshore of the northeastern Florida peninsula,
while surface observations show that tropical-storm conditions are
affecting portions of the coast of northeastern Florida.

The initial motion is now 335/8. Dorian is moving around the
western end of the subtropical ridge, and it should recurve
northward and northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies during
the next 24-48 h. This motion should bring the center of Dorian
near or over the coast of North Carolina during the 36-48 h period.
After that time, the cyclone is forecast to accelerate northeastward
into the Atlantic toward the Canadian Maritimes, with a quick
northeastward motion continuing for the remainder of the cyclone's
life. The track guidance is very tightly clustered, and the new
forecast track, which has only minor changes from the previous
forecast, lies in the center of the guidance envelope near the
consensus models. It should be noted that the track is close to and
almost parallel to the coast of the southeastern United State, and
any deviation to the left of the track could bring the center
onshore anywhere in the Carolinas.

Dorian is expected to remain in an environment of light to moderate
vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures during the
next 48 h. As a result, the hurricane is expected to maintain
Category 2 intensity as it passes near the southeastern United
States coast. After 48 h, increasing shear and dry air entrainment
should cause a weakening trend. Extratropical transition should
begin near the 72 h time, and the cyclone is forecast to become a
hurricane-force extratropical low by 96 h near or over Nova Scotia
and Newfoundland.

Since the NHC track prediction continues to take Dorian dangerously
close to the southeast U.S. coast, all interests from northeast
Florida to the Carolinas should remain vigilant to the possibility
of experiencing destructive winds, flooding rains, and life-
threatening storm surges from this hurricane.
 
Downeastnc said:
I would knock 10-20 mph off those numbers honestly that would probably be more accurate of what would actually happen....still on that track the Triangle gets solid TS gust...
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Wake County was just added to the Tropical Storm Warning. Probably a good move given the expanded wind field along with the NAM which shows similar conditions for the eastern part of Wake and Johnston County (which was already warned).
 
The steady NHC is keeping the furthest west 6 hour point right at 80.0 W although that doesn’t mean there couldn’t be some points in between those 6 hour intervals slightly west of there.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
12Z NAM is no bueno for Charleston and points north. Even brings it in NC west of OBX.
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Maybe my eyes are merging the lines all together because I've looked at these so much, but splitting hairs anyway on 12z Nam....a problem.

Notice the NHC states a landfall in NC, but doesn't for SC. I interpreted the rest of their message as "too close to call".

nam3km_mslp_uv850_seus_fh31-37.gif
 
GaWx said:
The Euro also tends to be deceivingly too high with the wind maps that are often circulated (ask @Tarheel1) though some of those may be higher due to being well off the ground.
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10m winds 33ft above ground. Wind measurements usually taken about 14ft or so at observation points. Amazing how much of a difference that can make sometimes
 
GaWx said:
The Euro also tends to be deceivingly too high with the wind maps that are often circulated (ask @Tarheel1) though some of those may be higher due to being well off the ground.
Click to expand...
This is true but the issue last year with Florence and those projected winds that he is always using to discount the Euro's wind projections was an entirely different setup then Dorian. I'd wager all models are overdoing the winds to some degree on the western side and almost all maps that get shared are peak wind gust, with that said I've experienced some serious winds on the west side of transitioning TC's in my life. At this latitude sometimes the dynamics are just different. I'm just stating that you can't always discount a model output based on it's other failures in a scenario that was entirely different..
 
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