I thought the western side was the good side of the storm ? At least thats what James Spann always says.
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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
Here is the satellite data I'm using where you can clearly see the East jog away from 80w on the last few frames. I like to do at least 48 frames worth to get a good idea: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?par...1-100-1&checked=latlon-map&colorbar=undefined
I am going to trust Levi and a plethora of other mets saying the West side of this storm will become more expansive and nasty. I'm not sure of all the intricate on a forecasting level.
Stormsfury
Member
Flux from the north and east will invigorate the north and western sides of Dorian. Great video explanation on his YouTube channel.
Stormsfury
Member
Also with the uneven distribution of convection as things reorganize with Dorian, there will be considerable wobbling with an unevenly weighted system like this at this time.
Agreed 100%, which is good to see. That being said, he undoubtedly will wobble back to the NW soon. So, I expect a short term correction of sorts. But the longer term west component of motion has been limited and should continue that way. Once up to FL/GA line, any last remaining longer term west component of motion should be about over and once east of about the middle of GA coast there could even start to be a legit slight east component of motion (ignoring wobbling).
Downeastnc
Member
Not sure for further south but in NC the storm will be closer to the front and there will be dryer air working in the west side, there will also be a lot of heavier precip, this all helps bring the 925mb level winds ( which are already closer to the surface due to strong SLP ) to the surface more efficiently....the 925MB wind field on the NW side of the storm will be 60-90knts over NC so 70-100 MPH. I am sure the term sting jet will get abused the next 36 hrs as well
The 3K NAM was quite a jog farther west at landfall in NC than even the 6z. 10m winds jumped considerably over the Triangle, as did rainfall.Not sure for further south but in NC the storm will be closer to the front and there will be dryer air working in the west side, there will also be a lot of heavier precip, this all helps bring the 925mb level winds ( which are already closer to the surface due to strong SLP ) to the surface more efficiently....the 925MB wind field on the NW side of the storm will be 60-90knts over NC so 70-100 MPH. I am sure the term sting jet will get abused the next 36 hrs as well
All indications are that this 12Z NAM will very likely end up verifying as too far west there.
Stormsfury
Member
Case in point. Last RECON fix at 1441z.
Considerable bounce.
Also getting a fair amount of thunder from this heavy outer squall.
Considerable bounce.
Also getting a fair amount of thunder from this heavy outer squall.
Downeastnc
Member
Not so sure...the difference between the NAM v/s the furthest east mode (Euro) isn't much. Maybe 30 miles? Nobody knows that.
Wait, is he back now?
ForsythSnow
Moderator
This storm still has some strength to it.
Tropical Storm Warning in effect for the Wake Co. south and east.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Don't like seeing that at all.