Tropical Hurricane Dorian

[Downeastnc]

UK has been consistent.
View attachment 23127

Yeah hasnt moved 10 miles either side of that track for at least 4-5 runs now it seems..

 

[Henry2326]

Freaking battle of the ridges right there....
View attachment 23123

Yep...its locking in, if not already. Probably why HWRF and HMON are identical.

 

[Henry2326]

Freaking battle of the ridges right there....
View attachment 23123

Phil used the "pinched" yesterday....is this what he was talking about?

 

[KyloG]

HWRF has been locked in for past 7-8 runs on what was the 15z position.

 

[Rain Cold]

HWRF has been locked in for past 7-8 runs on what was the 15z position.

View attachment 23131

I expect to see the 3k shift back east at 18z.

 

[Downeastnc]

Another thing to keep in mind is these big storms like this with large eyes do not see their wind speeds slow down as fast due to land interaction and in fact the center's often tighten up a bit and sometimes even see pressure drop that help it hold its wind field even longer.....Irene was a good example of this....she actually got more organized as she crossed the coast into the Pamlico sound....

 

[Snowfan]

SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 79.7W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NE OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES

 

[BHS1975]

Seeing a few strikes around the eye.


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[Philstorm91]

Dorian doesn't look so bad on visible satellite now.

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[BHS1975]

HRRR stays offshore


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[Stormsfury]

Little left of past fix. Looking heathier on vis satellite as well.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Yeah I think Dorian looks pretty good on IR and the visible satellite right now, to me it looks like he's moving NW but my winds are out of the north so I could just be mesmerized by a wobble.

 

[Henry2326]

12z Euro offshore SC at 944....

 

[GaWx]

12Z Euro very similar to the 6Z/east of 0Z. Definitely looking good as far as a major threat here in GA thank goodness thought that doesn't mean it won't be stormy.

 

[Metwannabe]

So far Euro well east of it's 0z run still on a N heading though so probably still close to the coast
edit: looks to be turning @24, this one may staff offshore

 

[Arcc]

So far Euro well east of it's 0z run still on a N heading though so probably still close to the coast
edit: looks to be turning @24, this one may staff offshore

Better hope so, Euro has it strengthening to 945mb.

 

[GaWx]

So far Euro well east of it's 0z run still on a N heading though so probably still close to the coast
edit: looks to be turning @24, this one may staff offshore

It does stay offshore on 12Z Euro. Edit: or a close scrape in part of NC

 

[Snowfan]

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 79.8W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ENE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES

 

[Henry2326]

Better hope so, Euro has it strengthening to 945mb.

Some short term models have to follow before I buy into a Euro short term again....i followed like sheep with Florence and we know how that ended.....

 

[Metwannabe]

Better hope so, Euro has it strengthening to 945mb.

Looking at it currently it may not be off with strength, really looking good now