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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Surprised Boone didn’t close Appalachian State. They usually accept UNC evacuees from Wilm.
 
Best I can tell on the 24 hours maps looks like it makes LF on NC coast, almost same location as previous runs. So east early, end result for NC anyway about the same
 
metwannabe said:
Looking at it currently it may not be off with strength, really looking good now
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You have to think getting out over the gulf stream and the track away from land will only increase the intensity, but if it heads directly north bypassing SC a bit could spell additional trouble for SE Nc.
 
Henry2326 said:
Some short term models have to follow before I buy into a Euro short term again....i followed like sheep with Florence and we know how that ended.....
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You mean like this one?

hmon_mslp_wind_05L_5.png


In actuality I agree with you to an extent, it’s possible it restrengthens, but on the other hand these models usually fail in this type of setup.
 
Arcc said:
You mean like this one?

hmon_mslp_wind_05L_5.png


In actuality I agree with you to an extent, it’s possible it restrengthens, but on the other hand these models usually fail in this type of setup.
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Yep....we have short term models that are lock step at the moment and then a euro that's not - in either track or intensity. It gets really difficult to figure out what to believe.....
 
Now the interesting thing, does it get any closer to 80W? This Euro run never does and in fact may actually stay just east of it's current position, I know we're talking only a few miles but still.

1567620637553.png
 
metwannabe said:
Now the interesting thing, does it get any closer to 80W? This Euro run never does and in fact may actually stay just east of it's current position, I know we're talking only a few miles but still.

View attachment 23134
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The hour 6 of this 12Z Euro run is maybe a hair at most east of actual position. So, it is a very good match.
 
Storm has yet to cross 80w and the new Euro if correct, would never cross 80w.
 
the 12z HWRF has it past 80w by 21z. we shall see. (5pm est i think)

latest hrrr on tt looks to stay east of 80w so far also.
 
Shawn said:
Storm has yet to cross 80w and the new Euro if correct, would never cross 80w.
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It would seem to me that moving more west means it moves less north, so less west means more north? More north means it gains latitude quicker and that at least to me would increase the likely hood of as SC/NC border landfall similar to the 3kNAM as it would let the storm get farther north before the ridge breaks down letting it make the more NE to ENE turn....
 
Downeastnc said:
It would seem to me that moving more west means it moves less north, so less west means more north? More north means it gains latitude quicker and that at least to me would increase the likely hood of as SC/NC border landfall similar to the 3kNAM as it would let the storm get farther north before the ridge breaks down letting it make the more NE to ENE turn....
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Yeah, I think what might be more important now is how east it goes versus north.
 
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