Ser Pounce
Member
Calm and rainy just off the Ashley River, across and up just a bit from The Citadel.
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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
Ethan80963!
Member
I saw some saying that the Euro tends to have strong winds too far inland but I see quite a few models showing around the same solution. Are most models overdoing this?
packfan98
Moderator
Check with your local National Weather Service. They are putting out some great graphics showing winds, precip, and timing. Here's an example for NC (Raleigh office):
For some areas sure, but as the storm crawls up the coast the wind field will quickly expand the further it goes all the way to sub tropical.
For example, even the Midlands of SC could see Tropical Storm forces gusts, while a bigger chunk of NC could actually see heavier winds if it tracks across the NC coastline.
FWIW, those are the winds 5,000 feet above ground.
Not all of that will mix down to the surface.
Jim Cantore had made an interesting point yesterday.. the sun can help these heavier winds mix down to the surface between bands sometimes. For future reference. The western side of the storm is expected to be far reaching and nasty.
Henry2326
Member
I think we may see these escalate if 06z HWRF continues to repeat.
Henry2326
Member
06z HWRF looked the same....
Henry2326
Member
Hmmmm...the eye is so big, could go either way...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
12Z NAM is no bueno for Charleston and points north. Even brings it in NC west of OBX.
Closer to coast I think we get a more pronounced west turn soon
Agreed although we need to make sure it doesn’t wobble too much to the left. But no doubt that in addition to feeling much better for here, if I were living in CHS I’d be much less worried than I was when that 18Z Euro came out. The 10 AM position is the same as it has been for 2 hours, 79.6 W. The longitude of CHS is at 79.9 W. I’m not saying he won’t have one last period of some more west component of motion (if so most likely during a wobble) but he clearly has been struggling to have much west component of motion for the last few hours. All models suggest his longitude as he gets close to SC will be a fair amount east of what it is when it is due east of the FL/GA line. So, the key in my mind for CHS is his longitude once east of the FL/GA border. If it is only west to about 79.9 then, I wouldn’t see CHS getting that bad of a hit. And then IF he is only around, say, 79.7 then, that would be even better news for CHS and probably even a bit further up the SC coast.
SCWXGuy
Member
Hard to tell if it is wobbling a bit, to me it looks like the center is not going to make 80W and is maybe starting the NE turn?
Very good signs as the circulation starts to show reintensification, it seems to have "wobbled" to the East even further from 80w. Hopefully this continues.