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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
These were probably posted and I missed it but here is the 0z eps, more members with inland tracks
Only schools around me and farther south I imagine. I don’t see that happening in and around Wake County.
Not really, a very slow storm, stalled or nearly stalled, can cause upwelling of cooler waters thus limit strengthening, I don't see it slowing that much however.
This could turn out to be a mess.
Some very cold cloud tops on the south side, only thing inhibiting strengthening atm is that dry air, if it gets rid of that will be a small window of opportunity before shear increases.
It could.... we can trend a TC our way but never a winter storm
I expect dorian to regain some strength but there are some flies in the ointment.. interaction with trofing and sheer, dry air (not nearly a factor it was yesterday already), and shallow waters the closer it hugs the coast. The eye wall is massive now and it's going to take something major to allow her to shrink again.. and I'm doubting it happens.
Do we see a cat 3 again? not sure.. but she has definitely peaked back over the bahamas.
Do we see a cat 3 again? not sure.. but she has definitely peaked back over the bahamas.
I agree! I would think it has 1 more (last shot) to give it a go. Its over the Gulf Stream so......
Henry2326
Member
06z HWRF dragging the eye along the SC coatline.....yep, a real mess.
Larger scale surge and wind impacts....
Larger scale surge and wind impacts....
Downeastnc
Member
Best way to track big irregular eyes is to follow recon plots......wobbly NW motion the last several hrs
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Well, if the track keeps moving farther inland, there could be tropical storm winds here.
Shaggy
Member
With the models slowing down again wouldnt that indicate that the trough is maybe delayed and therefore not kicking it out to the east fast enough? Wouldnt this allow a longer slower recurve like some of the models show? Seems it doesn't accelerate until after it has already passed NC.
That 06z Euro run is a substantial shift East. Good signs for Larry and a lot of SC. Don't get me wrong, impacts will exist, but those stronger winds may stay off shore if this track were to occur before Dorian approaches the OBX. Eyewall size will be important here.
Henry2326
Member
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
So all day yesterday and overnight, the models kept going farther west and inland, and now the Euro goes east. The forecasters are going to have a time trying to nail down the track for this one.
SCWXGuy
Member
I walked along Isle of Palms last night near Breach Inlet. There are several homes that already have severe erosion from the recent high tide cycles. The eroded dune is over 12 ft high and along the edge of it is an in ground pool shell for the home in the picture.
There are several homes on Isle of Palms near the south end that are at risk with the predicted 4-7 ft storm surge above mean high tide.
There are several homes on Isle of Palms near the south end that are at risk with the predicted 4-7 ft storm surge above mean high tide.
The off runs of the Euro have been especially bouncy. I would put my money on the EPS/GEFS combo for track...and they are right on top of each other give or take. I think the brunt of Dorian is going to be from CHS to Oak Island as Dorian will be moving relatively slow still and will probably be a cane still.
