I now measure just under 68 miles from just north of Melbourne to Western part of the eye.
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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
Flo
Member
Meaning?
YetAnotherRDUGuy
Member
I’ve got to say that based on my eyeballing current satellite/radar loops along with the 1AM NHC location that Dorian is now clearly tracking EAST of the scary (for my location) 18Z Euro run. The 2AM position of this run is over at 79.7W, which is quite a bit WEST of reality. I’m waiting for 2AM NHC position.
I expect the 0Z Euro to be a little east of the 18Z. But even if not, the 18Z is too far west as mentioned.
I expect the 0Z Euro to be a little east of the 18Z. But even if not, the 18Z is too far west as mentioned.
I would say its prob pretty close to 79.5, IMO Larry
Looks like Euro shifted west along coast of SC.
Do someone have maps of track on 0z Euro showing how close Dorian come to coast??
LOOKS TO JUST MAKE LANDFALL FROM THIS
Thanks, Chris. I just looked at the 18Z Euro again very closely and I got 79.7 W, which compares to the 79.2 W actual position. So, the actual at 2AM is ~35 miles east of the 18Z Euro position.
I’ll give further evidence by posting 2 images, the 18Z Euro at 2 AM today (hour 12) and the Melbourne radar from just a little later (2:13 AM). As one can clearly see, the radar image of the center is a nice amount east of the 18Z Euro.
And now the 0Z Euro is in and it has come a bit east of the 18Z Euro and is back to near the 12Z run. I think I’m going to sleep better tonight than what I had anticipated.
18Z Euro at 2AM:
Melbourne Radar 2:13 AM: east of the 18Z Euro:
The 0Z Euro location as of 2AM is east of the 18Z by a nice amount and it is near the actual position as per below. As a result, he is ~35 miles further from SAV vs the 18Z at his closest approach.
0Z Euro’s position as of 2AM:
0Z Euro’s position as of 2AM:
Would this mean further away from Charleston?
It looks similar to the 18Z for CHS but maybe a little further offshore.
I don't think there's a code anywhere near that here. No, nothing even close to 150 in the 1900s. More like 100 and that occuring in the first half of that century.
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Well, it looks like I may be finally headed to bed and with the idea that the motion still doesn't have that much westerly component/more northerly, which is good from my perspective...so helpful for being able to sleep.
Regardless, he may be restrengthening a little based on the colder cloud tops in the north eyewall though I don't expect much strengthening., if any occurs. Outermost bands are approaching from offshore. Going to be very stormy on and off for much of the next 30+ hours it appears.
Regardless, he may be restrengthening a little based on the colder cloud tops in the north eyewall though I don't expect much strengthening., if any occurs. Outermost bands are approaching from offshore. Going to be very stormy on and off for much of the next 30+ hours it appears.
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BHS1975
Member
This looks more realistic.
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BHS1975
Member
Looks like he’s trying to rebuild an inner core.
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IF HE CAN GET RID OF THAT LITTLE BIT OF DRY AIR NEAR THE CENTER THEN IT SOULDNT BE AN ISSUELooks like he’s trying to rebuild an inner core.
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Downeastnc
Member
Well that 00Z Euro run was a game changer for us up in NC if correct...had 80-100 mph gust over almost all of eastern NC with the center making landfall over Swansboro moving more NE up into the Pamlico Sound.