Snowflowxxl
Member
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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
I Agree, and any westerly component from here on in is BAD news....as you know, Larry
New recon about to take off
Cadi40
Member
I would say it's moving NW however the eye can be deceiving.
From a larger overview, i can see how it does look to be going west more so on the last few frames..
levi mentioned this in his latest video with the digging trough and slower storm motion... pulling it closer into the coast.
levi mentioned this in his latest video with the digging trough and slower storm motion... pulling it closer into the coast.
Tiny bit of good news for GA: the NHC position at 11 PM is 28.4N, 79.0W vs the 18Z Euro's 28.4N, 79.2W. So, the actual location is 0.2 degrees (~14 miles) EAST of the scary 18Z Euro.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
These latest WNW wobbles may put that 14 miles in jeopardy in a hurry.
blueheronNC
Member
3km NAM brings 70mph wind gusts into portions of the Triangle with hints of a sting jet developing. Also depicts supercellular structures from Goldsboro east in bands. Horrible run for even inland places.
The new 11pm official NHC cone/track, is slightly East
Henry2326
Member
Shaggy
Member
What a grueling storm. 72 hours and it is hopefully on the way to the north atlantic
Henry2326
Member
Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019
Dorian's structure has changed significantly during the past day or
so. Satellite and Doppler radar images show that the inner core has
become rather broad with a large ragged eye of at least 30 n mi
diameter. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate
that the maximum winds and minimum pressure have held steady since
this afternoon, and based on that information, the initial
intensity is held at 95 kt, but this could be a little generous.
The aircraft data and surface observations indicate that the wind
field is expanding in size with tropical-storm-force and
hurricane-force winds extending up to 150 n mi and 50 n mi from the
center, respectively. NOAA data buoy 41010 just northeast of the
center has been reporting sustained winds as high as 60 kt with
gusts to 78 kt, and seas over 30 ft.
Dorian is finally on the move again, and the latest initial motion
estimate is 340 degrees at 5 kt. Dorian is being steered by the
flow between a mid-level ridge to the east and broad troughing to
its north. A northwest to north motion with some increase in
forward speed is expected through Wednesday, taking the core of
Dorian just offshore and parallel to the east coast of Florida
during that time. Thereafter, a faster motion toward the northeast
is predicted as a series of shortwave troughs move across the
northeastern U.S. This should take the core of the hurricane
very near, or possibly over, the coasts of South and North Carolina
on Thursday and Friday. After it passes the Outer Banks, the
hurricane is forecast to accelerate northeastward in the stronger
mid-latitude flow toward the Canadian Maritimes this weekend.
The NHC track forecast is largely unchanged and near the middle of
the tightly packed guidance envelope.
The hurricane is in a favorable environment of low wind shear, high
moisture, and warm SSTs, and it is expected to stay in these
conditions until it nears the Carolina coast. Therefore, Dorian is
expected to remain about the same intensity during the next couple
of days. After that time, an increase in shear from the
mid-latitude trough and drier air should cause Dorian to slowly
weaken. The GFS and ECMWF models both show Dorian becoming an
extratropical system by 96 hours, and the official forecast follows
those solutions. As this system gains latitude, the wind field is
expected to expand even more. Therefore, even if Dorian does not
make landfall, hurricane-force winds are expected to reach portions
of the coast from central Florida to North Carolina.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019
Dorian's structure has changed significantly during the past day or
so. Satellite and Doppler radar images show that the inner core has
become rather broad with a large ragged eye of at least 30 n mi
diameter. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate
that the maximum winds and minimum pressure have held steady since
this afternoon, and based on that information, the initial
intensity is held at 95 kt, but this could be a little generous.
The aircraft data and surface observations indicate that the wind
field is expanding in size with tropical-storm-force and
hurricane-force winds extending up to 150 n mi and 50 n mi from the
center, respectively. NOAA data buoy 41010 just northeast of the
center has been reporting sustained winds as high as 60 kt with
gusts to 78 kt, and seas over 30 ft.
Dorian is finally on the move again, and the latest initial motion
estimate is 340 degrees at 5 kt. Dorian is being steered by the
flow between a mid-level ridge to the east and broad troughing to
its north. A northwest to north motion with some increase in
forward speed is expected through Wednesday, taking the core of
Dorian just offshore and parallel to the east coast of Florida
during that time. Thereafter, a faster motion toward the northeast
is predicted as a series of shortwave troughs move across the
northeastern U.S. This should take the core of the hurricane
very near, or possibly over, the coasts of South and North Carolina
on Thursday and Friday. After it passes the Outer Banks, the
hurricane is forecast to accelerate northeastward in the stronger
mid-latitude flow toward the Canadian Maritimes this weekend.
The NHC track forecast is largely unchanged and near the middle of
the tightly packed guidance envelope.
The hurricane is in a favorable environment of low wind shear, high
moisture, and warm SSTs, and it is expected to stay in these
conditions until it nears the Carolina coast. Therefore, Dorian is
expected to remain about the same intensity during the next couple
of days. After that time, an increase in shear from the
mid-latitude trough and drier air should cause Dorian to slowly
weaken. The GFS and ECMWF models both show Dorian becoming an
extratropical system by 96 hours, and the official forecast follows
those solutions. As this system gains latitude, the wind field is
expected to expand even more. Therefore, even if Dorian does not
make landfall, hurricane-force winds are expected to reach portions
of the coast from central Florida to North Carolina.
YetAnotherRDUGuy
Member
Not discounting this, but am a bit puzzled. Why would the Triangle get higher wind gusts than counties E of us in this scenario?