Tropical Hurricane Dorian

[KyloG]

Euro looks dead on to where Dorian currently is. The infrared is 1:40z and Euro is 03:00z.

 

[Henry2326]

 

[NCSNOW]

0z nam is west of 18z

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Also 923mb sitting about 50 miles SE of Savannah on pivotal

 

[ForsythSnow]

Also 923mb sitting about 50 miles SE of Savannah on pivotal

The 3KM again is not reliable for pressure. Use the 12 KM. That shows a more reliable 962 mb.

 

[SD]

Good divergence over NC should be a decent shield of rain

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[Metwannabe]

0z nam is west of 18z

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Not huge I guess but Dorian looks closer to the Fl peninsula then the NAM initialized or has during it's run

 

[Metwannabe]

Little slower and nice westward expansion of the rain shield

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[deltadog03]

Starting to see a solid jog toward the coastline right now

 

[Henry2326]

 

[SD]

Little slower and nice westward expansion of the rain shield

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3k nam is getting more rain on the northern and western side. We may be seeing the models start to show a more expensive area of rain farther west.

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[Downeastnc]

Little slower and nice westward expansion of the rain shield

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925MB winds on the NAM are 80-90 mph at 1800-2400 ft over most of eastern NC and 50-80 mph and a little higher up over the I-95 corridor, how efficiently those winds mix down will be critical....


Also that track of the 3K NAM is

 

[deltadog03]

I can see why the models are closer and closer to the coast in short term and long term

 

[Henry2326]

Change in 3k Nam last 4 runs...

 

[Tarheel1]

Tropical Storm Watches 1 county away from RAH now!!!

 

[Downeastnc]

3K NAM just plows into NC almost NNE never makes the turn ENE ends up over Belhaven on the last frame I saw....this is much further NW with the track than the GFS/ICON/EURO/UKIE by a good 50-75 miles

 

[Tarheel1]

I swear on satellite, it’s moving WNW!?

 

[GaWx]

Per my eyes, if this is east of the 18Z Euro, it isn't by much. I have the 11 PM location of the 18Z Euro (hour 9) near 28.4N, 79.2W. I'm not liking this at all.

 

[ForsythSnow]

I swear on satellite, it’s moving WNW!?

Almost looks like that on radar the last 10 or so frames.

 

[SD]

Tropical Storm Watches 1 county away from RAH now!!!

I'm in the tropical storm watch

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[Downeastnc]

I swear on satellite, it’s moving WNW!?

Its really hard to track storms with large irregular eyes as the uneven edges make it look like it is doing all kinds of stuff.....generally I would say he is moving NW....