Tropical Hurricane Dorian

[Shaggy]

Interesting that WRAL futurecast makes LF around Southport and then runs it inland over ILM and the western side of the Pamlico Sound then exiting over Nags Head...hmm very similar to the 3k NAM track

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Blend that with the slightly off coast models and that's not unreasonable.

 

[dsaur]

Per my eyes, if this is east of the 18Z Euro, it isn't by much. I have the 11 PM location of the 18Z Euro (hour 9) near 28.4N, 79.2W. I'm not liking this at all.

I'm taken with how many structures remained standing in the Bahamas, then heard from the PM that the codes in place must meet 150 mph. Impressive. What are the codes in Sav, Larry? Anywhere near that? Has Sav been hit with 150 plus in the last century?

 

[Metwannabe]

Not discounting this, but am a bit puzzled. Why would the Triangle get higher wind gusts than counties E of us in this scenario?

Interaction with the trough and transitioning to extra tropical as it passes by helps bring those powerful winds just overhead down to the surface, especially on the west side. Unique but not rare

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[Brent]

Recon showing a left turn towards FL

 

[Downeastnc]

Not discounting this, but am a bit puzzled. Why would the Triangle get higher wind gusts than counties E of us in this scenario?

The run ended close to that frame so that was just 1 hr, there would be hrs of that kind of wind from the Triangle to the coast.....it was not a total wind gust for the event map but rather a snapshot of just 1 hr. Think of it as a deform band in the winter it will pivot and move east as the center of the low moves east....

 

[$alt]

So far GFS lockstep with 18z through hr 18.. legacy GFS is a bit east of previous.

disregard that legacy comment. prob west.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

I know the latest NHC update says a NNW heading but per the latest recon data, that’s wrong. It’s most definitely NW with even a WNW bobble.

 

[SCWXGuy]

11 pm update from Rob Fowler (Ch 2 in CHS) shows 30-40% chance of hurricane gusts up to 85 MPH on immediate coast. All talk is on storm surge threat.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Bahamas

 

[Ethan80963]

GFS a tad west vs previous run

 

[YetAnotherRDUGuy]

Interaction with the trough and transitioning to extra tropical as it passes by helps bring those powerful winds just overhead down to the surface, especially on the west side. Unique but not rare

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Thanks Met. I'm skeptical of gusts being that high locally, but I'm certainly not discounting it.

Looks like your location gets similar impacts as mine if this prediction holds.

 

[Metwannabe]

The run ended close to that frame so that was just 1 hr, there would be hrs of that kind of wind from the Triangle to the coast.....it was not a total wind gust for the event map but rather a snapshot of just 1 hr. Think of it as a deform band in the winter it will pivot and move east as the center of the low moves east....

Yeah I tried to share the gif, never worked but we were in those gust for 4-6 hours easily

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[$alt]

Man, these models just keep slowing this thing down over and over. jeeze.

 

[YetAnotherRDUGuy]

The run ended close to that frame so that was just 1 hr, there would be hrs of that kind of wind from the Triangle to the coast.....it was not a total wind gust for the event map but rather a snapshot of just 1 hr. Think of it as a deform band in the winter it will pivot and move east as the center of the low moves east....

Gotcha. I'm assuming a total wind gust map of NC would be more uniform from E to W. Would make more sense geographically.

 

[Downeastnc]

Buoy 41010 is 40 miles from the center and gusting into the 80's this should be NE of the center

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41010

This one is 20 miles east of Cape Canaveral and is gusting into the 70's so the higher winds are not that far off the coast

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41009

 

[Metwannabe]

Thanks Met. I'm skeptical of gusts being that high locally, but I'm certainly not discounting it.

Looks like your location gets similar impacts as mine if this prediction holds.

I'm skeptical of those gust too as shown by the 3k NAM but it has happened before in these situations. Just something to be aware of as possible

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[Cadi40]

Is this going to hit Florida?

 

[Downeastnc]

Is this going to hit Florida?

If by hit you mean the center come on shore....probably not....but I would say that it is already "hitting" Florida.

 

[Brent]

Man, these models just keep slowing this thing down over and over. jeeze.

been the story since the start, I remember when landfall was gonna be Saturday Night in FL and here we are on almost Wednesday and it hasn't even cleared half of FL yet

 

[Henry2326]

September 3, 2019

COLUMBIA, S.C. – Residents in designated evacuation zones must leave no later than Wednesday morning to reach a safe distance from Hurricane Dorian. Due to the increasing threat of dangerous conditions such as storm surge and high winds, now is the time to heed the evacuation order issued by Governor Henry McMaster.

Lane reversal operations on I-26 will cease at noon Wednesday so that crews can seek shelter at safe locations outside of the storm’s projected path.

As a reminder, residents in the following zones must evacuate now:

Beaufort County Evacuation Zone A
Berkeley County Evacuation Zones B, G
Charleston County Evacuation Zones A, B, C
Colleton County Evacuation Zones A, B
Dorchester County Evacuation Zone D
Georgetown County Evacuation Zone A
Horry County Evacuation Zone A
Jasper County Evacuation Zone A
Based on the storm’s projected path along with predicted storm surge and high tides, roads may be inaccessible due to flooding, bridges may be closed due to high winds and emergency help may not be available.

Beginning Wednesday afternoon, travel may not be possible on the following high level, coastal bridges due to safety concerns brought on by expected tropical storm force winds:

McTeer Bridge (US 21 ALT) in Beaufort County
Don Holt Bridge over the Cooper River (I-526) in Berkeley County
Stono River Bridge (SC 700) in Charleston County
Ravenel Bridge & Ramps (US 17) in Charleston County
Wando River Bridge (I-526) in Charleston County
Wando Bridge (SC 41) in Charleston County
Isle of Palms Connector (SC 517) in Charleston County
Bridge over the Sam Pit River (US 17) in Georgetown County
Bridge over the Intercoastal Waterway at Socastee (US 17) in Horry County
Little River Bridge (US 17) in Horry County
Pee Dee River Bridge (US 701) in Horry County
Open evacuation shelter locations are available on scemd.org and in the SC Emergency Manager mobile app as soon as they are opened.

People leaving the coast should pack the following essential items in case the evacuation period is lengthy: required medications, adequate clothing and essential personal items. Residents going to evacuation shelters should bring their own blankets, pillows, cots and special food items if they are on restricted diets.

Pet owners should plan to board their animals with veterinarians, kennels, or other facilities in non-vulnerable areas. While pets are not allowed inside Red Cross evacuation shelters, people with animals can take their pets with them to any shelter so volunteers can help them make arrangements.

The South Carolina Public Information Phone System is available 24 hours a day for anyone that needs assistance. Call 1-866-246-0133 with any questions related to Hurricane Dorian.