Fwiw: the 3k Nam shifted west compared to the 12k Nam.
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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
Henry2326
Member
Me too.....squeeze it up next to the coast or even on land and, as Phil says " it hockey pucks into Charleston or nearby....
I think we are back to a smoothed over due west or pretty close...still moving along nicely.
3k is way close to FL
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pcbjr
Member
The hockey puck that concerns me is WPB to Orlando to Jax ... not in the cards this deal, but the Casino has a table open with a fresh deck ready to play ...
It is astonishing to me how virtually all of these tracks (and most other guidance) parallel almost exactly the shape of the coast.
pcbjr
Member
the damn thing is alive and has eyes and a brain ... it's a sci-fi movie in real life ...
Welp Dorian is already tryna make it’s self known in FL lol
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Speed down to 5 mph now.
Do we think it will weaken any since its heading over the Bahamas? Or is the land too small and flat?
Hurricane Warnings issued for parts of the Florida coast.
packfan98
Moderator
Finally she's slowing down. Should be stalled out by around 8 AM tomorrow, before the substantial move North to avoid the majority of the USA (lets hope).
Land area is small and flat. I don't think it will have appreciable impacts. I think more impactful will be the negative attribute of upwelling as the stall occurs.
pcbjr
Member
cone line stays the same on the west ... reminds me of an old Dylan tune ... Quinn the Eskimo ...
Brent
Member
That or eyewall replacement cycles pretty much
ForsythSnow
Moderator
What ERC's? This storm likes its eyewall too much to lose it.
Posted with line, it actually just grazes the OBX now, was east of that earlier so slight west adjustment
I know there are varying opinions on this, but I feel like the Euro has done a relatively good job with the overall track idea. I know it has oscillated around with the exact track, but it has been fairly consistent showing the recurve...i.e. not sending it underneath FL like the Icon was or into the Gulf like the UK (i mean i think it did initially, but it's been off that idea for a while), or sending it well inland like the Canadian was doing. Assuming the track remains offshore and the recurve happens, I think it will have done pretty well. Initially, it had the wrong idea, but it's been pretty similar now for a while.
We're in a situation where 50 miles can make a huge difference, especially with regard to landfall/no landfall. But I have a hard time being too critical of a model for failing to get to that degree of specificity 3+ days out for a Cat 5 hurricane.
We're in a situation where 50 miles can make a huge difference, especially with regard to landfall/no landfall. But I have a hard time being too critical of a model for failing to get to that degree of specificity 3+ days out for a Cat 5 hurricane.