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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Bama Ravens said:
NHC says there could be gusts of 220mph.

o_O
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and this thing is supposed to follow the written rules of the road? that's what bothers me about the models ... they are dealing with an unknown ... and applying their built in knowns to something they are not programmed to historically factor ...
 
KyloG said:
What you think? Doesn't look promising...

Last 4 EPS runs.

View attachment 22782
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Keeps playing catch up with reality, look at the first couple of runs and all the members that were heading north before it reached the Abaco Islands.... never good when models have to adjust to reality
 
metwannabe said:
Keeps playing catch up with reality, look at the first couple of runs and all the members that were heading north before it reached the Abaco Islands.... never good when models have to adjust to reality
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in this case a reality they have no history dealing with or similar data to measure against ... exacerbates error likely ...
 
metwannabe said:
Keeps playing catch up with reality, look at the first couple of runs and all the members that were heading north before it reached the Abaco Islands.... never good when models have to adjust to reality
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And to thing TWC is praising the Euro right now for consistency. Total BS. It's behind that's why it's so consistent.
 
Not sure if I saw anyone post these and I know it has a west/southwest bias but here are the 12z UK ensembles FDAE6A1F-A07E-4AF2-ACBB-F0CA6CBD064A.jpeg
 
These satellite images are mesmerizing

66516074.gif
 
Shaggy said:
Not to downplay their catastrophe but had the eye stayed just a bit south and they never got the eye it would have been way worse. At least those poor people get a brief respite in the eye itself.
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Isn't it WORSE to be north of the eye since the northern eyewall is where the highest winds are(converging winds + west forward motion = stronger winds)?
 
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