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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Sleet City USA said:
This?
wg8dlm6.GIF
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Yup and I'm confused
 
I keep getting this "nagging/gut feeling" that Dorian may be what Floyd was feared to be ..No offense to what NC when through with him.
 
GaWx said:
Phil,
Thanks for posting this updated. Like the map you posted earlier, it would be better to post the steering for under 940 mb. This one is for 1000-1010 mb.
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Larry - Says 200 - 700 <940 ... what am I missing?
 
Sleet City USA said:
This?
wg8dlm6.GIF
Click to expand...

One can see here that the westerly steering is starting to weaken/collapse as the high weakens and the trough to the north passes by. So, we have to make sure that the semi-stall happens by about the western edge of Grand Bahama island by tomorrow evening. If so, FL should avoid a landfall.
 
I think right now I would blend the 12z Euro with Hurricane Mathew and Hurricane Floyd and that’s your track
 
GaWx said:
One can see here that the westerly steering is starting to weaken/collapse as the high weakens and the trough to the north passes by. So, we have to make sure that the semi-stall happens by about the western edge of Grand Bahama island by tomorrow evening. If so, FL should avoid a landfall.
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Southern Florida should. The Northern part can still be impacted as demonstrated by the HWRF. Of course it never fully stops, but it slows considerably enough to turn.
 
18z GFS looks to be a slight tick further west compared to 12z out to hour 33. Maybe 10 miles? Every mile counts on this one when it comes to sensible weather over land.
 
We're all giving it our best shot ... somewhere in here is the "answer" ... likely not mine but as we all are ... tryin' ... :cool:

Edit: and we all bring a bunch of knowledge, experience, differing perspectives, and a good bit of gut to the table ... carry on ...
 
Seems like a Wilmington landfall here on the GFS.

Still fairly strong as well although not as strong as it is today (obvious).
 
malak05 said:
No it would just become burning Godzilla
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If one got big enough in conjuntion with an earth quake to break up the methane hydrates, with all that lightening, ........oh, the humanity for sure. Burning hurricane sharknado. I'm going to write the script right now...as soon as I don't wash the car again :)
 
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