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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Interesting comment continues in 5:00 Discussion:

"Although
the official track forecast does not show landfall, users should not
focus on the exact track since a Florida landfall is still a
distinct possibility."
 
Not liking 2 runs of the gfs keeping the storm so close to NC coast. Idont believe the 10m wind maps bit it would put me in decent TS conditions. Glad it's still 5 days away and likely to change a bunch and climo says it should trend east.
 
Updated

hits: CMC, GFS-L, ICON, HWRF, UK, GFS
miss: Euro/Navgem/HMON
Hybrid: NHC - No landfall on graphic but in discussion says possible.

By far, IMO, the Icon coast rider is the most widespread destruction.
 
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6z....then 9z....steering map. Ridge still there, as expected, but I noticed that the trof dipping down isn't as far south over LA, and *appears* its lifted out a bit more?

6z steering.gif9z steering.gif
 
First pass of the new plane. Extrapolated down to 926 and 3 cat 5 FL readings in a row.

Looks to have slowed a little and maybe a wobble north. Gonna be a big time hit for those islands as he crawls over at potentially cat 5 strength. Gonna be bad for them.
 
I also notice they have it as this now....it had been around 280 degrees....What a beautiful, but def. scary hurricane we have.

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
 
I guess this drop called it. Look at the mean wind,
recon_AF302-2805A-DORIAN_dropsonde3_20190901-1134.png
 
Miami radar starting to pick up Dorian's rain bands. Also would be good to know of any live webcams in that part of the Bahamas.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
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